2023-07-18 21:00:26
Tyreek Hill recently claimed on his podcast “It Needed to be Said” that he will post a 2,000 receiving yard season in 2023 for the Miami Dolphins. So as bettors, this got us thinking.
Hill and Jaylen Waddle give the Dolphins a formidable wide receiver duo, which is good and bad for Hill trying to back up his claim. It’s good that opposing defenses have to pay attention to Hill and Waddle and not double-team Hill as often.
RELATED: Tyreek Hill makes bold prediction
But it’s bad because there’s only so many throws from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to his wideouts, and Waddle figures to get a decent amount (Hill had 1,710 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season, 1,356 for Waddle).
Can Hill achieve this historic feat? Let’s take a look at Hill’s receiving odds and get the thoughts of FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz.
Tyreek Hill’s Over/Under 1,300.5 receiving yards in 2023*
Over: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
ODDS TO LEAD LEAGUE IN RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson, Vikings: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Cooper Kupp, Rams: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Davante Adams, Raiders: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
ODDS TO HAVE 1,500+ SEASON
Justin Jefferson, Vikings: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Davante Adams, Raiders: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Cooper Kupp, Rams: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
* odds as of 7/18/2023
Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams is the only wide receiver to achieve a 2,000-yard receiving season (2021) but that included the postseason. Kupp had 1,947 yards in the regular season and 478 more in four postseason games for a total of 2,425 yards.
Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions holds the record for regular season receiving yards with 1,964 in 2012.
PICK Via FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
Despite what Tyreek Hill proclaims, he is not going to reach 2,000 yards in any season, let alone this upcoming one.
No receiver has ever broken the 2,000-yard mark in a single season, with Calvin Johnson getting the closest in 2012 with 1,964 yards on 122 receptions. That is 122 yards per game over a 16-game season which is 22 yards more per game than Hill had last season in 17 games. That was the highest per game total of Hill’s career, and he was nearly 300 yards short of 2,000. Also, the Dolphins’ offense is not designed to target Hill enough to get to this number.
I’m generally going to wager the Under for any receiving or rushing prop as injuries can derail these props. Just missing a game or two and you’re losing it. However, I feel comfortable wagering on Tyreek Hill to get Over 1,300.5 receiving yards this season. He’s only been over that number twice in his career, but you’re getting a number that’s 410 yards less than he had last season with his quarterback only playing in 12 of their 17 games.
The Dolphins’ offense is diverse and has so many weapons that teams can’t always double-team Hill, which gives him opportunities for those explosive plays. Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t have the strongest arm, but the offense puts Tua in great positions to make those throws, and he’s been accurate when letting it go.
I’d take the Over here.
PICK: Tyreek Hill +105 Over 1,300.5 receiving yards (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Follow along on FOX Sports for the latest on NFL news as we head toward the 2023 season.
 
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