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The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, and various speculations about the 20th Congress have surfaced. The outside world is concerned about whether Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader after Mao Zedong, will start another term without any suspense. There are also voices wondering how long his rule will last and whether a successor will appear.
In terms of other personnel arrangements, the unwritten rule of “seven ups and eights downs” in the CCP has continued in the past. According to this rule, leaders who are overaged this year need to “get off at the station”. For the positions that need to be filled, there are already a number of popular young candidates. What are the potential and worthy of attention of China’s political rising stars? Who will the Prime Minister be?
BBC Chinese interviewed several scholars and analysts who have been following China’s political trends for many years to try to dismantle these issues.
Will Xi’s re-election be challenged?
In the past 10 years, Xi Jinping has gradually strengthened his power through anti-corruption and governance, social control and governance of the people. In 2016, the Sixth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China established Xi Jinping’s core position in the party; in 2017, at the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping Thought on Chinese Socialism in the New Era was written into the Party Constitution; The draft amendment to the constitution of the People’s Republic of China removed the rule that the chairman and vice-chairmen of the country should not be re-elected for more than two terms, clearing the way for Xi Jinping to continue to hold power.
Before the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping visited Central Asia. From September 14th to 16th, Xi Jinping attended the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Yoyev invited to pay a state visit to the two countries.
According to these trends, Hong Kong current affairs commentator Liu Ruishuo pointed out that this reflects that Xi Jinping’s status is already very strong, otherwise he would not have visited the country before the 20th National Congress.
Chen Cheng, a professor of political science at the State University of New York at Albany, also told BBC Chinese that Xi Jinping’s re-election as the top leader of the 20th National Congress is affirmative.
“This arrangement has been prepared and paved for several years, so there will be no obvious challenges from within the party at the 20th National Congress. Now facing multiple pressures at home and abroad, Xi Jinping will strive to show the outside world at the 20th National Congress. The image of the CCP’s unity.” Chen Cheng said.
Chen Daoyin, a former associate professor of the Department of Politics at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, who now lives in Chile, also told the BBC that Xi Jinping has no challenge now.
“In terms of power structure, no power department in the party can challenge Xi’s authority, and no party leader is willing to challenge Xi’s authority. There must be complaints, but they are really willing to stand up to take historical responsibility or political responsibility. There is no mission. Even during the ‘June 4th’ in 1989, no one in the party stood up to publicly support the student movement.” Chen Daoyin said.
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The consolidation of Xi Jinping’s power can also be seen in the CCP’s political discourses and expressions. In recent years, the CCP has frequently mentioned “two establishments” and “two maintenances”. “Two establishments” means to establish Comrade Xi Jinping as the core of the Party Central Committee and the core of the whole party, and to establish the guiding position of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era; , the core position of the whole party, and resolutely safeguard the authority and centralized and unified leadership of the party central committee.
“The two establishments are from the level of the entire party, and the two maintenances are requirements for party members. From the whole and part, from the whole party and individual party members, it is strengthening Xi’s authority, and strengthening the authority of the whole party members over Xi. Xi has achieved the consolidation of power, and there can no longer be forces and people in the party that challenge Xi.” Chen Daoyin believes.
How long will Xi’s rule last? Has a successor appeared?
If Xi Jinping is re-elected at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, how long will he stay in power and whether there will be a successor is another topic that is hotly debated and concerned by the outside world.
Chen Daoyin believes that since 2012, Xi Jinping may influence and dominate Chinese history for 30 years.
“As soon as Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he proposed a new era. The new era is definitely different from the Deng era in the past. China’s Mao Zedong era lasted 30 years, and Deng Xiaoping’s era of reform and opening up was basically 30 years old. Of course, Xi Jinping’s new era will also last 30 years. Otherwise, how can it be called an era?” Chen Daoyin analyzed, “Now 10 years have passed, and the next ten years are certain, but I will not dare to talk about it in another 10 years. After 2032, maybe Xi Jinping may retire. , but may still be the absolute authority within the party, like Deng Xiaoping.”
Chen Cheng said that there was no obvious successor before the 20th National Congress.
“After the 20th National Congress, it is not easy to predict how long Xi will serve as the top leader. If there is no obvious successor at the 20th National Congress, it means that he has left his option for re-election in the future.” Chen Cheng said.
Will “seven up and eight down” change?
There has always been an unwritten “seven up and eight down” practice within the CCP, that is, those who are 68 years old leave office, and those who are 67 years old and below can stay in office. At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, Wang Qishan, the 69-year-old secretary of the Central Disciplinary Committee, no longer served as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, and Li Zhanshu, the oldest of the five new members of the Standing Committee, was 67 years old.
Currently, Xi Jinping, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng are all 68 years old among the seven Politburo Standing Committee members. By convention, neither Li Zhanshu nor Han Zheng could remain in office, leaving two positions vacated for the Standing Committee.
Chen Daoyin pointed out that although “seven ups and eight downs” is not a legal system for the replacement of leadership power in the strict sense, only Xi Jinping can break the “seven ups and eight downs” convention.
Chen Cheng also believes that Xi is unlikely to completely change the “seven up and eight down” conventions at the 20th National Congress.
“Xi’s own re-election also went through a major move like amending the constitution to make it procedurally justifiable. Back then, Xi didn’t change the practice of ‘severe oversights’ because of his close confidant Wang Qishan, and he probably won’t now. Therefore, Li Gauntlet and Han Zheng should resign from the Standing Committee and have other appointments.”
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Cai Qi
Who are the rising political stars to watch?
If a Politburo Standing Committee member leaves office, the vacant position needs to be filled by a younger generation. What qualities do you need to enter the core decision-making level of the CCP? Liu Ruishao pointed out that Xi Jinping needs to consider two factors at the same time.
“First, will those who become permanent members or remain on the Standing Committee have any impact on Xi Jinping’s personal power; second, these people must be able to help him solve problems.” Liu Ruishao said.
“Otherwise, if he just promotes his own people, he will not be able to solve the problem, and China’s problems are becoming more and more complicated, which is not good for him.”
Chen Daoyin pointed out that we can observe what positions the members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held before taking office. The first is the municipal party secretaries of several municipalities directly under the Central Government, such as Shanghai, Chongqing, and Tianjin, and the provincial party secretaries of major economic provinces, such as Guangdong. Xi Jinping’s former subordinates in Zhejiang and Shanghai are also popular candidates.
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In March of this year, Shanghai was closed for more than two months due to the new crown epidemic. During the period, food shortages and the lack of timely medical treatment for patients were criticized.
After Xi Jinping became China’s leader, he promoted a number of his subordinates during his tenures in Zhejiang and Shanghai. Known as the “Zhijiang Xinjun” or “Xi’s Army”, the men include Beijing Party Secretary Cai Qi, Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang, Chongqing Party Secretary Chen Min’er, Guangdong Party Secretary Li Qiang, and CPC Central Office Director Ding Xuexiang.
However, the epidemic in Shanghai in the first half of the year made Li Qiang’s career confusing. In March of this year, Shanghai was closed for more than two months due to the new crown epidemic. During the period, food shortages and the lack of timely medical treatment for patients were criticized. Political analysts have different views on the future direction of Shanghai party secretary Li Qiang.
Chen Daoyin believes that Li Qiang’s actions in Shanghai just carried out Xi Jinping’s orders, and neither good or bad will affect his personal development.
Chen Cheng said: “The Shanghai epidemic was indeed handled very poorly, and Li Qiang was not punished, but the damage to his reputation would definitely have an impact. It doesn’t mean that he is completely impossible to become a regular, but if he does, Xi Jinping will inevitably suffer because’ He was criticized for being cronyism.”
However, Chen Cheng also said that regardless of the final composition of the Standing Committee, Xi’s core position will not be shaken, and the new Standing Committee will faithfully implement Xi’s line and policy on this basis.
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Li Keqiang has publicly stated that this year is his last year as prime minister.
Who will the Prime Minister be?
In March of this year, China’s current Premier Li Keqiang said at a press conference at the National People’s Congress that this year is the last year of the current government and his last year as prime minister. The remarks seemed to reveal that he would not remain prime minister.
In August of this year, Li Keqiang visited Shenzhen, and a video of his inspection at Yantian Port was circulated on the Internet. In the video, he said that “China’s opening up will continue to move forward, and the Yellow River and the Yangtze River will not flow backwards.” In fact, he said something similar at the Prime Minister’s press conference in March this year: “No matter how the international situation changes, China will unswervingly expand its opening up. The Yangtze River and the Yellow River will not flow backwards.”
Chen Daoyin explained that this was Li Keqiang’s voice before he left office, and he was ready to get off at the station.
“It’s a very tragic voice, it’s not the voice of someone who is ready to continue, it’s ‘I have no choice, I can only speak here’. It’s just like Wen Jiabao said at the premier’s press conference before he left office that the political system is not good enough. Reform, the Cultural Revolution may be repeated.”
Chen Cheng believes that Li Keqiang may still remain as a member of the Standing Committee, and even if he does not remain a member of the Standing Committee, Li is likely to get a decent appointment.
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Hu Chunhua
Within the CCP, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Wang Yang, Chen Min’er and Li Qiang are all popular candidates for prime minister.
Hu Chunhua, 59, and Li Keqiang, 67, both graduated from Peking University and came from the “Tuanpai”. Hu Chunhua served successively as Governor of Hebei, Secretary of the Party Committee of Inner Mongolia and Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee. The officials of the “Yuanpai” all move to the center of the Communist Party’s power through the Chinese Communist Youth League, and Hu Jintao, the former general secretary of the Communist Party of China, is also regarded as a member of the “Tuanpai”.
Liu Ruishao believes that compared with the candidates who have not been admitted to the permanent residence, it is impossible to see who is more experienced than Hu Chunhua, because he has experience in the local area and also in the central government; Chen Miner only has local work experience, not in the central government. work experience.
Chen Cheng pointed out that Hu Chunhua is very likely to be a member of the Standing Committee. “Although he has a background in the Youth League, this will not be the reason for Xi to suppress him. In the past few years, Hu has been relatively low-key, and Xi’s arrangement of his supervisor is also more important to Xi himself. The promotion of Hu will be an important part of the 20th National Congress to reflect the unity of the party. Hu has the potential to become the next prime minister.”