3.1% chance ‘city killer’ asteroid will hit Earth

2024 YR4: Asteroid Threat Raises Concern, But Experts Remain Calm

An asteroid nicknamed “2024 YR4” poses a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in December 2032, marking the most significant asteroid threat ever monitored by modern forecasting. This newfound risk,while alarming,has been met with cautious optimism by the global astronomical community,who emphasize that there is ample time to prepare and potentially avert the threat.

Discovering the Threat

Discovered on December 27, 2022, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be 40-90 meters wide. Initial observations suggest a composition typical of asteroids, rather than a rarer, metal-rich variety.

Rising Probability Sparks Action

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning memo on January 29, 2023, after the impact probability crossed the 1% threshold. As then, NASA’s calculations have placed the probability at 3.1%, with a potential impact date of December 22, 2032.

A ‘City Killer’, Not a ‘Planet Killer’

“It’s a very, very rare event,” states Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, adding, “This is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most hazardous for a city.”

Potential Impact Scenarios

While drastically smaller than the asteroid responsible for the dinosaurs’ extinction, 2024 YR4 could still inflict significant damage. Its projected velocity of almost 40,000 miles per hour increases the potential impact destructiveness. If it enters Earth’s atmosphere, an airburst is the most likely scenario. This would result in an explosion of approximately 8 megatons of TNT, over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. Direct impact, while less probable, could generate a significant crater if the asteroid is closer to the larger end of its estimated size range.

webb Telescope to the Rescue

Data from the James Webb Space Telescope, the most powerful space observatory, will be crucial in refining our understanding of 2024 YR4’s trajectory. “Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim,” explains Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the Planetary Society. This capability will be essential as the asteroid is currently moving towards Jupiter, with its next close approach to Earth not until 2028.

Time to Prepare

The most encouraging aspect is that there is ample time to prepare. If necessary, existing technologies, successfully demonstrated by NASA’s DART mission in 2022, could be deployed to deflect the asteroid and avert a potential disaster.

Staying Informed

While 2024 YR4 presents a real threat, experts emphasize the importance of staying informed and avoiding panic. Continuous monitoring and advancements in planetary defense technology offer hope for mitigating this and future asteroid threats.

Given the potential impact scenarios discussed,what specific steps is NASA taking to prepare for the possibility of a 2024 YR4 ground impact?

Archyde News Exclusive

Q&A with Dr. Amina Al-Sayer: NASA’s director of Planetary Defense on the Asteroid Threat from 2024 YR4

Archyde News had the possibility to speak with Dr. Amina Al-Sayer, NASA’s Director of Planetary Defense, about the recent discovery of the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 and the steps being taken to assess and mitigate its potential impact on Earth.

Discovering the Threat

Archyde (A): when and how was 2024 YR4 discovered?

Dr. Amina Al-Sayer (AA): 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2022, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. It’s one of the many near-Earth objects being tracked by our planetary defense network.

Rising Probability Sparks Action

A: At what point did the impact probability become important, and what actions were taken?

AA: When the impact probability crossed the 1% threshold, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning memo on January 29, 2023. Since then, NASA’s calculations have placed the probability at 3.1%, prompting increased scrutiny and dedicated resources for study and mitigation efforts.

A ‘City Killer’, not a ‘Planet Killer’

A: Could you contextualize the threat from 2024 YR4 for our readers?

AA: While the ~40,000 mph projected speed of 2024 YR4 is alarming, it’s crucial to understand that this isn’t an extinction-level event like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. At its largest, it would still be orders of magnitude smaller than that asteroid. However, it could cause significant destruction, comparable to a large meteor airburst or a direct impact from a smaller city-sized object.

Potential Impact Scenarios

A: What are the potential impact scenarios if 2024 YR4 were to hit earth?

AA: The most likely scenario involves an airburst,which would release energy equivalent to over 500 Hiroshima bombs. However, if it impacts the ground directly, especially in an uninhabited or less populated region, it could create a significant crater depending on its size and composition.

James Webb Telescope to the Rescue

A: How will the James Webb space Telescope help in studying 2024 YR4?

AA: Webb’s advanced infrared capabilities will be crucial in refining our understanding of 2024 YR4’s trajectory as it moves towards Jupiter. By studying its light as it reflects off the asteroid’s surface, we can gather more precise data about its orbit and potential hazards.

Time to Prepare

A: What steps are being taken to potentially deflect the asteroid?

AA: Given the 10-year window until the predicted close approach, we have time to prepare. If necesary,we can use proven technologies like gravitational tractor or kinetic impact,demonstrated successfully by NASA’s DART mission in 2022,to deflect the asteroid’s trajectory.

Staying Informed

A: How can the public stay informed and what should thay do to prepare?

AA: Scientific agencies worldwide are committed to keeping the public informed. Websites, workshops, and open communication channels are crucial for disseminating accurate details and dispelling misconceptions. Importantly, staying calm and planning is key. If an impact threat becomes more probable, emergency services will provide guidelines tailored to the specific situation.

Looking Ahead

A: What advice would you give to those concerned about the threat of 2024 YR4 and future asteroid threats?

AA: Asteroid threats are real, but they’re also manageable.Continuous monitoring, innovative technology, and global collaboration are our best tools for mitigating these risks. The honest truth is that we don’t no everything about the universe, but every discovery and scientific advancement brings us closer to understanding and protecting our home.

Archyde News thanks Dr. Amina Al-Sayer for her time and insight.