On November 13, 2026, former foreign affairs minister Bob Carr said that the $368bn Aukus agreement is living a lie, with officials in Canberra and Washington acknowledging Australia will never receive its promised nuclear submarines.
Carr told Guardian Australia’s weekly Australian Politics podcast that the 2021 deal has been reduced to a diplomatic joke, with American-operated vessels expected to be stationed at Australian bases instead. The former Labor minister expects a future US president will determine that China’s military might makes transferring three or more Virginia-class nuclear submarines too difficult.
- Australia has already paid more than $3bn to support US submarine manufacturing as part of promised payments totalling $4.6bn over the deal’s lifetime.
- The first Virginia-class nuclear sub from the US is scheduled to arrive in Australia in 2032, with subsequent vessels arriving every four years before the bespoke SSN Aukus model comes online in 2042.
- Defense establishments are reportedly conscious of budgetary pressures on other defense platforms caused by funneling cash into a single platform that could be overtaken by modern technology.
“I don't think that even people in our defence establishments believe that this deal has been a good one for us,” former foreign affairs minister Bob Carr told the Guardian, noting that defense establishments are increasingly conscious of the heavy budgetary pressure placed on all other military platforms.
Australia is channeling vast sums into a single capability that critics argue might be overtaken by technological advancements, pointing to lessons learned from the conflict in Ukraine.
The Albanese government maintains that Aukus is proceeding exactly as intended. “It represents the biggest industrial project in our country's history,” Defense Minister Richard Marles said this week, stating that Aukus is absolutely happening and describing it as the biggest industrial project and military capability leap in the country's history.
| Milestone / Payment | Details |
|---|---|
| Initial Payments | Over $3bn already paid toward US submarine manufacturing out of a planned $4.6bn. |
| First Delivery Target | 2032 for the initial US Virginia-class nuclear submarine. |
| Final Fleet Target | 2042 for the bespoke SSN Aukus model to come online. |
The agreement was originally negotiated and signed in 2021 by then-prime minister Scott Morrison, US president Joe Biden, and UK prime minister Boris Johnson, with the Labor Party supporting the plan while in opposition. However, ongoing delays and cost blowouts in US submarine production have fueled skepticism across the political spectrum.
Earlier this month, a crowdfunded public inquiry led by former Labor MP Peter Garrett and former chief of defence Admiral Chris Barrie labeled the plan the worst, riskiest, and most costly defense decision in Australian history. Figures such as former minister Gareth Evans and former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull also provided evidence to the inquiry.
Supporters of the pact, including former defense ministers Linda Reynolds and Christopher Pyne, continue to argue in favor of the strategic partnership. Meanwhile, the Albanese government remains dismissive of the inquiry’s findings, emphasizing that the arrangement provides thousands of high-tech jobs and secures the nation’s defense capabilities.
