Hezbollah’s Regression: Lebanon Plunged into a More Perilous Era

Geagea Slams Hezbollah’s “External System” Role, Cites Lebanon‘s “Frozen Future”

Beirut, Lebanon – Political leader Samir Geagea has issued a stark condemnation of Hezbollah’s involvement in regional conflicts, especially its stance on the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza. Geagea asserted that such actions are detrimental to Lebanon, claiming that “three quarters of the Lebanese do not want this war” and emphasizing that the state, not a militia aligned with an “external system,” is solely responsible for protecting its citizens.

Geagea’s critique highlights a deep-seated concern over Hezbollah’s influence and its perceived impact on Lebanon’s national sovereignty and future. He argued that the party’s actions are actively “destroying Lebanon and freezing its future” by imposing an agenda separate from the state’s authority. This, he believes, has hindered the nation’s ability to secure international support and has trapped it in a cycle of conflict.

“We will not accept that we live without a state,” Geagea stated, referencing a prolonged period were he claims “some lebanese who trade in the fate of everyone for goals that have nothing to do with Lebanon, but in Iran” have dictated the country’s direction. He contends that the current situation, driven by Hezbollah’s external entanglements, is more perilous than a full-scale war, as it drags Lebanon into conflicts beyond its control while leaving it vulnerable to retaliation without deterrence.

“Lebanon incurs the human, material and moral losses, while the party drags it towards collapse,” Geagea lamented. He also pointed to the stalled political progress, attributing six months of lost chance to “delusions of dialog with Hezbollah” and a failure to make responsible national decisions for a better future. geagea urged Lebanese authorities to act decisively, asserting that Hezbollah will not alter its course as it “does not recognize the state at all.” the people, he concluded, are awaiting decisive action to extricate Lebanon from its current predicament.

What are the primary financial challenges Hezbollah is currently facing, and how do these impact its operational capabilities?

The Eroding Pillars of Hezbollah’s Power

For decades, Hezbollah has been a dominant force in Lebanese politics and security. However, recent developments suggest a notable regression in its power, dragging Lebanon into an increasingly precarious situation. This isn’t a sudden collapse, but a gradual erosion of key pillars supporting its influence – financial resources, regional backing, and internal legitimacy. Understanding these shifts is crucial for assessing Lebanon’s future stability. The current situation demands a close look at Lebanon’s political crisis, Hezbollah’s influence, and the potential for further destabilization.

Financial Strain: The Impact of Sanctions and Economic Collapse

Lebanon’s catastrophic economic crisis,beginning in 2019,has severely impacted Hezbollah’s financial network. Historically, the group benefited from funding from Iran, diaspora contributions, and illicit activities like smuggling and the Lebanese banking sector. However:

Increased Sanctions: US and international sanctions targeting Hezbollah and its financiers have tightened the noose, making it harder to access and move funds. These sanctions specifically target individuals and entities involved in Hezbollah’s financial network.

Iranian Economic Woes: Iran itself is facing significant economic challenges due to sanctions, limiting its ability to provide consistent financial support. This reduction in iranian funding is a critical factor in Hezbollah’s weakening position.

Loss of Public Support: The economic collapse has fueled widespread public anger and resentment towards the entire political class, including Hezbollah, eroding its traditional base of support.the perception of corruption and mismanagement has damaged its image.

Smuggling Disruptions: Increased security measures and economic controls have disrupted Hezbollah’s smuggling operations, further reducing its revenue streams.

Diminished Regional Support & Shifting Alliances

Hezbollah’s regional standing has also been affected by evolving geopolitical dynamics. While Iran remains a key ally, the broader regional landscape is changing:

Normalization Agreements: The Abraham Accords and normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states have altered the regional balance of power, isolating Hezbollah to some extent.

Syrian Quagmire: Hezbollah’s deep involvement in the Syrian civil war, while initially successful in propping up the Assad regime, has stretched its resources and exposed it to significant casualties and criticism. The ongoing conflict in Syria continues to be a drain on Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Iraq’s Internal Conflicts: While Hezbollah maintains ties with certain Shia factions in Iraq, the internal political instability within Iraq limits the extent of support it can provide. The Islamic Revolution in Iraq groups, some aligned with Hezbollah, face their own challenges.

Reduced Iranian leverage: Iran’s own regional influence is being challenged, impacting its ability to project power through proxies like Hezbollah.

internal Divisions and the Erosion of Legitimacy

Beyond external pressures, Hezbollah is facing internal challenges that are contributing to its decline.

Growing Discontent Within the Shia Community

The economic crisis has disproportionately affected Lebanon’s Shia community, traditionally Hezbollah’s core constituency. This has led to:

Increased Criticism: Open criticism of Hezbollah’s leadership and policies is becoming more common, even within Shia circles.

Loss of Trust: Many Shia citizens feel that Hezbollah has prioritized its own interests and those of Iran over the needs of the Lebanese people.

Rise of Option Voices: The emergence of alternative Shia political voices challenging Hezbollah’s dominance.

The Challenge of Maintaining Armed Strength

Maintaining a powerful military wing is becoming increasingly challenging for Hezbollah:

Weapon Procurement: Sanctions and economic constraints are making it harder to procure and maintain its vast arsenal of weapons.

Operational Costs: The cost of operating and maintaining a sophisticated military force is significant, and Hezbollah’s dwindling resources are straining its ability to sustain its military capabilities.

Public Scrutiny: Increased public scrutiny of Hezbollah’s military activities and its role in regional conflicts.

The Flags of Affiliation and Identity

The symbolism surrounding Hezbollah is also evolving. the various flags associated with the group – the Hezbollah al-Ghalibun Flag, flags used during Hezbollah funerals, and those representing affiliated organizations like the Imam Mahdi Scouts and Hizb-ut-tahrir – reflect a complex web of ideologies and allegiances.These visual representations are increasingly contested as public opinion shifts.The use of these flags in public spaces is becoming a point of contention, highlighting the growing divisions within Lebanese society.

The Security Vacuum and Potential for Escalation

Hezbollah’s regression is creating a perilous security vacuum in Lebanon.

Increased Militancy: The weakening of Hezbollah could create opportunities for other extremist groups to gain a foothold in the country.

Renewed Conflict with Israel: A weakened Hezbollah might be more prone to reckless actions, potentially triggering a new conflict with Israel.

Political Instability: The power vacuum could exacerbate existing political tensions and lead to further instability.

Rise in Criminal Activity: A decline in Hezbollah’s authority could lead to an increase in criminal activity and lawlessness.

The Future of Lebanon: A Perilous Path Forward

The decline of Hezbollah doesn’t automatically guarantee a more stable Lebanon. In fact, the transition period is likely to be fraught with