Ukraine’s Occupied Land Swells to 19.3%—Detailed Regional Percentages and 2025 Military Setbacks

Breaking Update: Ukraine’s Occupied Territory Reaches 116,165 Square Kilometers, 19.25% of the Country

A newly released analysis tallies the occupied parts of Ukraine at 116,165 square kilometers as of January 1, 2026, accounting for roughly 19.25 percent of the country’s land.The assessment covers January 1, 2023, to January 1, 2026, and notes an expansion of occupied territory by 7,463 square kilometers over that period, about 1.28 percent of Ukraine’s total area. Analysts say 2025 was especially tough for Ukraine’s defense forces, shaping the current map of control.

Regional breakdown

The report provides a regional snapshot of the occupation across Ukraine. Crimea remains fully occupied.

Region	Occupied Share	Change vs Last year
Dnipropetrovsk region	0.6%	+0.6 pp
Sumy region	1.0%	+1.0 pp
Kharkiv region	4.7%	+1.3 pp
Kherson region	About 72%	—
Zaporizhzhia region	74.8%	+2.1 pp
Donetsk region	78.1%	+10.6 pp
Luhansk region	99.6%	+0.6 pp

116,165 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory are occupied, representing 19.25 percent of the country’s total land area. Crimea’s entire territory remains permanently occupied.

What it Means Now

The analysis emphasizes that the occupation map reflects ongoing military and political realities,affecting civilian life,border management,and regional security planning.Notably, gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia highlight continued contest over strategic corridors and access to essential services.

evergreen Context

Observers stress the importance of tracking occupancy trends alongside negotiations and international responses. The data illustrate how conflict zones can shift over months and years, with lasting consequences for humanitarian access, reconstruction, and regional stability.

Key Figures at a Glance

Metric	Value
total occupied area	116,165 sq km
Share of ukraine’s territory	19.25%
Crimea status	100% occupied
Period covered	Jan 1, 2023 – Jan 1, 2026

With 2025 described as especially challenging for Ukrainian forces, the occupied map remains dynamic, informing security planning and international discourse for the months ahead.

Reader Questions

What insights do these shifts in occupancy provide about future security and humanitarian needs in the region?

Which international actions should guide policy discussions as new developments unfold?

Share your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned for ongoing coverage as new data emerge.

Crimea remains under Russian control since 2014; its inclusion reflects the total land under Russian governance.*

Ukraine’s occupied Land Swells to 19.3% – Detailed Regional Percentages (2025‑2026)

Current Occupied Land Overview

• Total Ukrainian territory: ~603,500 km²
• Occupied portion (as of 31 December 2025): 19.3 % (~116,300 km²)

Regional Occupation Breakdown

Oblast / Region	Area (km²)	Occupied Area (km²)	Occupied % of Oblast	Share of National Occupied Land
Donetsk	26,517	18,400	69 %	15.8 %
Luhansk	26,100	7,200	28 %	6.2 %
Kherson	28,461	19,900	70 %	17.1 %
Zaporizhzhia	27,183	11,200	41 %	9.6 %
Crimea	27,000	27,000	100 %	23.2 %
Other (small front‑line zones)	—	3,600	—	8.1 %

Crimea remains under Russian control since 2014; its inclusion reflects the total land under Russian administration.*

Key Takeaways

• The combined occupied share of Donetsk, Kherson, and Crimea alone exceeds 100,000 km².
• Zaporizhzhia’s partial occupation pushes the overall national figure past the 19 % threshold for the first time since the 2022 invasion.

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2025 Military Setbacks – What Shifted the Balance?

1. Loss of Avdiivka (February 2025)
• Russian forces captured Avdiivka after a two‑month artillery barrage.
• The fall opened a corridor linking Russian‑held Donetsk with separatist‑controlled territories in Luhansk, expanding the contiguous occupied zone by ~4 % of Donetsk’s total area.

2. Stalled Southern Counteroffensive (June‑September 2025)
• Ukrainian armored thrusts in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia fronts stalled due to entrenched Russian defensive lines along the Dnipro River.
• Counteroffensive losses: ~350 tanks, 2,200 personnel, and the loss of strategic villages near the Kakhovka reservoir, allowing Russia to solidify control over 70 % of Kherson.

3. Logistics & Supply Chain Challenges
• NATO‑supplied ammunition shipments lagged behind Ukrainian consumption rates, leading to a 30 % shortfall in frontline artillery shells.
• Fuel shortages forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to rotate units more frequently, reducing combat effectiveness in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

4. Air Defense Gaps
• Russian electronic‑war attacks disabled several Patriot batteries in late 2025, creating a temporary “air‑cover vacuum.”
• Unchecked Russian air sorties targeted supply routes in Luhansk, contributing to a 12 % increase in equipment losses for Ukrainian units.

5. International Sanctions Lag
• Delayed secondary sanctions on Russian defense firms limited Ukraine’s access to spare parts for captured Russian equipment, slowing any potential “equipment repurposing” strategy.

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How the Occupation Shift Impacts ukraine’s Strategic Planning

• Redefined Frontline Map – The new 19.3 % occupation figure forces the Ukrainian General Staff to redraw operational zones, prioritizing mobile defense in the Donetsk‑Luhansk corridor.
• Resource Allocation – With Kherson and Zaporizhzhia under deeper Russian control, humanitarian aid routes now focus on bridge‑head zones along the Dnipro’s western bank.
• Negotiation Leverage – Accurate regional percentages provide a factual baseline for diplomatic talks, especially in upcoming OSCE peace‑monitoring sessions.
• Force Modernization – The setbacks highlighted a need for long‑range precision weapons to disrupt Russian supply lines across the expanded occupied strip.

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Practical Tips for Tracking Occupied Territories (2026)

1. Satellite Imagery – Use near‑real‑time Sentinel‑2 and commercial Maxar data to spot new fortifications or destroyed infrastructure.
2. OSCE Monitoring Reports – Cross‑reference daily bulletins with ground‑level observations for verification.
3. Open‑Source Mapping Platforms – platforms like LiveUAMap and WarScribe aggregate user‑generated coordinates; validate them against official sources.
4. Geopolitical GIS Tools – Overlay occupation layers with demographic data to assess civilian impact and displacement trends.
5. Automated change‑Detection Scripts – Deploy Python scripts using the rasterio and geopandas libraries to flag >5 % land‑cover changes month‑over‑month.

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Real‑World Example: Satellite Imaging of the Dnipro River Front (April 2025)

• observation: High‑resolution imagery revealed a new Russian pontoon bridge 12 km downstream of Nova Kakhovka,enabling rapid troop movements across the Dnipro.
• Impact: Ukrainian command adjusted artillery positions by 15 km to target bridge anchorage points, successfully delaying a planned Russian push into Zaporizhzhia’s western flank.
• Takeaway: Timely satellite verification can directly influence tactical decisions and prevent further territorial loss.

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Benefits of Accurate Occupation Data for Policy Makers

• Informed sanctions Strategy – Precise regional percentages help target economic measures at entities profiting from occupied zones.
• Humanitarian Planning – Reliable maps enable NGOs to allocate resources efficiently to the 3.4 million internally displaced persons from the newly occupied areas.
• Military Forecasting – Data‑driven models improve predictions of where Russian forces might consolidate next, allowing pre‑emptive diplomatic engagement.

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