Morocco’s Fuel Market: Rising Imports, Stable Prices, and a Concentrated Future
Despite a remarkably concentrated market dominated by nine operators, Morocco saw a 12.4% surge in fuel imports during the third quarter of 2025, a trend that simultaneously bolstered state tax revenues and helped maintain stable prices at the pump. This seemingly paradoxical situation, detailed in the Competition Council’s 8th monitoring report, reveals a complex interplay of market forces and strategic economic management – and hints at potential shifts in the Moroccan hydrocarbon landscape.
The Import Boom: More Fuel, Lower Bill?
Between July and September 2025, Morocco absorbed 1.91 million tonnes of diesel and gasoline, a significant increase from the same period in 2024. Interestingly, this volume increase didn’t translate into a proportional rise in import costs. The total value of imports actually decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 12.73 billion dirhams. This was largely due to a relaxation of international prices, allowing Morocco to import more fuel for a slightly lower overall cost. Diesel continues to reign supreme, accounting for 88% of imported volume, but gasoline is experiencing faster growth, albeit from a smaller base.
The Role of New Entrants
The increase in import volume is directly linked to a more open import market. The approval of a new operator brought the total number of authorized importers to 33 as of the end of September 2025. While this increased competition is a positive development, the market remains heavily influenced by the established players. The nine companies monitored by the Council still control a staggering 82% of import volume.
Tax Revenue on the Rise: A Direct Benefit of Increased Consumption
The surge in fuel imports directly fueled a substantial increase in tax revenue. Reaching 7.83 billion dirhams in the third quarter of 2025 – an 8.6% increase compared to 2024 – this revenue is crucial for the Moroccan state budget. The Internal Consumption Tax (TIC) remains the primary driver, generating approximately 76% of the total, with import VAT contributing a further 1.88 billion dirhams. Diesel, unsurprisingly, is the largest contributor to this tax revenue, generating 6.40 billion dirhams alone.
Concentration Persists: Storage, Distribution, and Market Share
Despite the growing number of importers, the Moroccan fuel market remains highly concentrated. The nine monitored companies control 81% of the nation’s total storage capacity (1.27 million tonnes out of 1.57 million tonnes) and nearly 70% of the service station network (2,563 out of 3,663 stations). This concentration extends to sales volume, with these nine operators accounting for 1.98 billion liters sold – a 4.2% increase year-on-year, despite a 6.2% decrease in overall turnover due to falling average prices.
Price Dynamics: Smoothing the International Volatility
A key takeaway from the report is that pump prices in Morocco aren’t directly tied to crude oil prices. Instead, they are linked to refined product quotations on the ARA (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp) market, using “Platts” references. This decoupling provides a degree of insulation from international price shocks. For example, while diesel prices on the ARA market increased by 0.41 dirham per liter, the price at the pump only rose by 0.27 dirham. This difference is attributed to strategic stock management and operational decisions by importers, which help to absorb some of the international fluctuations.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Morocco’s Fuel Market
The Moroccan fuel market is at a crossroads. While increased import volume and a more open market are positive developments, the persistent concentration of power among a handful of operators raises questions about long-term competition and price stability. The government’s continued reliance on fuel taxes also creates a potential vulnerability to shifts in global energy markets and evolving consumer behavior. The rise of electric vehicles, though currently limited in Morocco, represents a potential long-term disruption to this dynamic. Furthermore, the increasing focus on renewable energy sources, as outlined in Morocco’s national energy strategy, could gradually reduce the country’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency provides further insights into Morocco’s energy landscape.
The next few years will be critical in determining whether Morocco can successfully navigate these challenges and build a more resilient, competitive, and sustainable fuel market. Continued monitoring by the Competition Council, coupled with proactive policy interventions, will be essential to ensure that the benefits of increased imports and economic growth are shared equitably across the Moroccan economy.
What are your predictions for the future of fuel taxation in Morocco, given the increasing focus on renewable energy? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
