The Willamette Valley, including the Portland metropolitan area, is facing an increasing likelihood of snowfall beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. While the exact location and amount of accumulation remain uncertain, forecasters now express “moderate confidence” that several inches of snow could impact travel across the region.
After initial forecasts suggested diminishing chances of snow, conditions have shifted, prompting renewed warnings for potential disruptions. The National Weather Service in Portland reports a 45 to 60% chance of one to two inches or more of snowfall somewhere within the I-5 corridor, encompassing cities like Portland, Salem, and Eugene. This potential for accumulating snow raises concerns about travel conditions and daily commutes.
Uncertainty Remains in Snow Band Location
Despite the increased confidence in snowfall, pinpointing exactly where the snow will fall is proving challenging. Meteorologists are grappling with conflicting models, making it hard to determine the precise path of a low-pressure system that is key to the storm’s development. David Bishop, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland, explained that the models are “not in good agreement at all as to the path that the low will take,” which is the critical factor in determining where the snow band will set up.
Three potential scenarios, or “tracks,” are being considered. Track 1 would bring the heaviest snow further north, Track 3 further south, and Track 2, the most likely scenario with a 40% probability, suggests snow from Longview to Portland. The remaining 20% probability encompasses a wide range, from the Olympic Peninsula down into California. This uncertainty means some areas could see significant snowfall while others remain largely unaffected.
Potential Travel Impacts and Regional Variations
The National Weather Service anticipates that any snowfall will develop in a “narrow band,” making localized impacts potentially significant. If the low-pressure system comes ashore south of Newport and moves east near Eugene, the southern and central Willamette Valley would likely experience the most substantial snowfall, while the Portland area might see little to no accumulation. Conversely, a more northerly track would favor snowfall in the Columbia River Gorge and the Portland/Vancouver areas.
Forecasters are advising residents to closely monitor updates over the coming days, particularly if they have travel plans on Thursday. Tyler Kranz, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland, emphasized the importance of staying informed as the details become clearer. Snow is already falling in the mountains, with accumulations above 1000 feet reported on Tuesday, and similar conditions are expected Wednesday morning.
School districts are already preparing for potential disruptions. The Nestucca Valley School District announced a full closure for Tuesday due to snowy conditions, and other districts implemented snow routes for buses. Further closures or delays are possible as the forecast evolves.
What to Expect Next
The focus remains on the movement of the coastal low-pressure system Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the low passes to the west, winds will shift, potentially bringing bands of precipitation into the Willamette Valley. The exact timing and location of these bands will determine whether the region experiences a significant snowfall event or avoids the worst of the storm. Residents are encouraged to stay tuned to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and local news outlets for updates.
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