The explosion in agricultural prices had begun long before the war in Ukraine. And the food crisis that is emerging in several corners of the world risks being the worst we have seen in a long time.
© Danil Semyonov Agence France-Presse
Ukraine and Russia account for more than 30% of world grain exports.
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this has been one of the main concerns. One, ravaged by bombs, and the other, immured behind economic sanctions, together account for more than 30% of world grain exports; Ukraine for half of sunflower oil exports; Russia for 13% of those of fertilizers and 11% of those of oil, two factors at the heart of the production, processing and transport of food, reports the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
As the cycle of agricultural production extends over several seasons, we have here all the ingredients not only for a surge in prices, but for a food crisis that threatens to last a long time.
The initial shock will be felt first in places already on the brink of famine — Afghanistan, Yemen and Ethiopia — and those from which the bulk of wheat imports, for example, came from from either of the two countries — Congo (over 60%), Egypt (over 70%), Turkey (over 80%) and Eritrea (100%).
But as we are largely dealing here with products traded on world markets, the phenomenon will not stop there, warn the experts, and it could particularly hurt the poorest countries where, on average, 40% of the expenditure of consumption goes to food, compared to 17% in developed countries.
Already off to a bad start
And then there is the context in which the conflict arises. “Rapidly rising food and energy prices are posing significant challenges to the poorest countries and consumers,” FAO said. in his most recent portrait of the situationwhich reported a 34% increase in food prices and 25% in input prices in just six months.
But that was in August 2021. Last week, year-on-year price increases were 48% for grains, 79% for wheat, 35% for fertilizers and 86% % for fuels.
Gallery: These global crises were followed by an economic recovery (Espresso)
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the agricultural sector was already bearing the brunt of the impact of COVID-19 on the production chain. There too, we were struggling with rising energy prices, transportation difficulties, bottlenecks in supply and labor shortages in certain sectors. We also had to deal with the repercussions of climatic upheavals, agricultural production having suffered from last year’s droughts in North America and floods in Europe, in particular. Worried, some governments had seen fit to restrict their food exports, further complicating the lives of others.
In 2020, the global prevalence of food insecurity had increased as much as in the previous five years combined and now affected nearly one in three people worldwide (2.37 billion), then reported the UN. However, even before Russian tanks entered Ukraine, world grain prices were already higher than they were during the 2007-2008 food crisis, observed last week researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), an American specialized research center. Back thenthe crisis had been caused, among other things, by the increase in Chinese and Indian demand, the rise in energy prices, the diversion of part of the production to biofuels, climatic disasters, speculation and a reflex of protectionist defence.
The situation had in the long run led to numerous hunger revolts, similar to those which contributed to the famous Arab Spring, a few years later.
Not reassuring
“In retrospect, [les dernières crises alimentaires de 2007-2008 et 2011-2012] ultimately appear less severe compared to what we face in 2022,” warns IFPRI. It is that this time, we are dealing with three aggravating factors, we explain.
First, the 2007-2008 crisis was preceded by an exceptional period of economic growth and poverty reduction, both in rich and developing countries. The world today, meanwhile, is just emerging from the worst global recession since the Great Depression, leaving urban populations in poor countries particularly vulnerable to soaring food prices.
Second, governments around the world, and particularly in Africa, will emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic with far less financial leeway to support their people than in the past.
Finally, explains IFPRI, the 2007-2008 crisis was relatively short-lived, as the global food system responded relatively quickly to demand. “But who can say with confidence that the effects of the Ukrainian crisis on food, fuel and fertilizer prices will soon subside? »
Not reassuring, all that.