The president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, no longer even bothers to pretend that he plays fair. In October, he promised to take steps to hold free elections, including allowing the opposition to choose its own candidate through a primary process, with the lifting of some US sanctions as an incentive. But almost immediately afterward, his government maintained the ban on holding public office imposed on María Corina Machado, the clear winner of said primaries. He then arrested his allies and campaign collaborators, accusing them of conspiring against the government. Some have requested asylum at the Argentine embassy. The Maduro regime has even refused to register the candidate that Machado designated to run in her place.
Joe Biden’s government now has little choice but to make good on its threats to reimpose some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas industry that it had already lifted, even though such sanctions are highly unpopular among Venezuelans.
It is a stark reminder that the far-reaching power of U.S. sanctions can do great harm, but rarely produces the political results that U.S. officials seek. In essence, the Biden administration offered Maduro a deal: ease sanctions in exchange for freer and cleaner elections. It was worth trying. A similar agreement helped Poland free itself from its autocratic system in the 1980s. If Maduro had taken it seriously, Venezuela would have had a path out of its prolonged political and economic crisis. But Maduro does not want to risk losing to Machado. If Maduro were to lose power, he would increase the likelihood that he would face justice in an international court for his brutal repression of mass demonstrations and other alleged crimes against humanity.
Perhaps he also realized that sanctions have not worked very well for the United States either. The crippling sanctions on the country’s oil sector—designed by the Trump administration to sink Venezuela’s economy and push Maduro out of power—are partly to blame for the migration crisis at the U.S. border, a serious political problem for Biden. in this election year. The sanctions exacerbated the economic collapse Venezuela was already experiencing. They reduced investment in the country’s most important industry, limited access to the foreign currency needed to import food and medicine, and made it virtually impossible for Venezuela to refinance its debts.
Consequently, the Venezuelan economy has experienced the biggest collapse in a country without war in at least 45 years. Millions of Venezuelans have fled to Peru, Colombia and other Latin American countries, while hundreds of thousands have ended up at the gates of the United States. For several years now, Venezuela’s most notable export has been people, not oil. About a third of Venezuelan households receive remittances from abroad.
Oil sanctions have hurt ordinary people, as many predicted, and have failed to overthrow Maduro, which was also predictable. The curious thing about sanctions, however, is that once they are imposed, it becomes politically impossible to lift them without receiving something in return.
In addition to ordinary people, sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry also harm the interests of the United States in the face of changing geopolitical realities. The sanctions pushed Venezuela further into the arms of Russia and China, more than happy to fill the void left by the United States. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has visited Caracas twice in less than a year, and has promised strategic cooperation to help Maduro weather any sanctions imposed by the United States. It is not exactly a formula that will restore Venezuelan democracy.
In 2022, Biden allowed Chevron to resume operations with a special permit, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led US officials to quickly search for a substitute for Russian oil. He then made another exception to allow European companies to invest more freely there. But, officially, the sanctions remain in force. U.S. officials are likely to respond to Maduro’s crackdown by reinstating some restrictions on foreign businesses, but their impact will be deliberately limited. “The United States has decided that it needs to maintain a certain level of relationship with the Maduro government, even if it doesn’t like it, and it has also decided that it wants to let Venezuela export oil,” Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist at the School of International Studies, told me. Josef Korbel of the University of Denver. “But he has to find a way so that it does not seem like he is giving in to Maduro.”
This is a stark example of how far America’s negotiating advantage goes. Dictators are just that: dictators, with or without US sanctions.
In many cases, sanctions strengthen their grip on power. The thing is, there aren’t many in the diplomatic toolbox that are sharp enough to change another country’s policy. Targeted sanctions on specific individuals in the Maduro regime would prevent widespread collateral damage, but many members of the Maduro government are already on the sanctions list.
U.S. officials should continue to cooperate with Venezuela’s democratic neighbors, especially Brazil and Colombia, to send the message that Americans are not the only ones alarmed by Maduro’s repressive measures. The entire region is suffering the consequences of the mass exodus of the Venezuelan people, which is embarrassing proof of Maduro’s profound failure.
There lies the true hope for change in Venezuela.
Although the elections, scheduled for July 28, will undoubtedly have serious shortcomings, they may nevertheless point in the right direction if the opposition unites to support the same candidacy and its participation figures are so high that it is impossible ignore them.
“The opposition has a huge opportunity to make it clear that Maduro is not wanted,” Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based researcher with the International Crisis Group, told me.
Next year’s legislative, regional and local elections are more hopeful, since Maduro will not be on the ballot. When change finally comes to Venezuela, it will be thanks to the perseverance, courage and ingenuity of the Venezuelan people, not US oil sanctions.
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