2023-11-13 21:15:39
(TND) — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has ended his presidential campaignleaving others to jockey for position behind prohibitive favorite Donald Trump.
The former president isn’t just lapping the field of Republicans with about two months to go before the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. Trump is consistently pulling in over 60% of the support in GOP polls.
And the next-closest candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is consistently polling over 40 points behind Trump.
Averaging results from a handful of national polls from outlets such as CNN and CBS News, DeSantis is getting about 15% of the vote, former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is getting about 8%, and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is getting around 5%.
Scott was averaging under 3%.
Scott announced Sunday night that he was pulling out of the race.
“I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim,’” he said in a TV interview. “I don’t think they’re saying … no. But I do think they’re saying not now. And, so, I’m going to respect the voters. And I’m going to hold on and keep working really hard and look forward to another opportunity.”
Don’t expect Scott’s exit to make much of a difference in the race, according to experts.
“That Trump lead is so gargantuan that we’re talking pennies on the dollar when these people drop out,” said Oklahoma State University politics professor Seth McKee. “… It’s like residual support. It’s so tiny, you can’t do anything with it.”
McKee said Scott was “narrowcast” in the race in a way that wasn’t gaining traction with a wide swath of voters.
And Todd BeltPolitical Management program director at The George Washington University, said Scott struggled to find a consistent voice through several Republican debates.
“He was trying to go in with the happy warrior sort of approach,” Belt said. “And the focus on the religion and his personal story, that can only get you so far unless you really have an alternative vision of what your America looks like under your presidency. And I don’t think he really ever articulated that well.”
McKee said Scott should endorse fellow South Carolinian Haley.
“That would be the, I think, the smart play for him politically,” he said.
Belt said everyone not named Trump just wants to come out of the first couple of contests as a strong No. 2 or 3.
Haley told Fox News this weekend that she’s “surging” while Trump has “flatlined” and DeSantis is “falling” in the polls.
Both McKee and Belt said Haley is best positioned as a Trump alternative for Republicans who are wary of the baggage that comes with the former president. Trump has been indicted in four felony cases, including allegations of mishandling sensitive government documents and trying to overturn the 2020 election results.
Haley said she agrees with a lot of Trump’s policies, but “drama and chaos follow him.”
“We need to have someone who can win the general election, as well,” she said. “We need to make sure that we have a new conservative leader.”
While Belt described Haley’s approach as “Republican classic,” both he and McKee said that DeSantis has campaigned more in the mold of Trump.
McKee said the primary calendar sets up well for Haley.
First comes Iowa, where DeSantis earned the valuable endorsement of Gov. Kim Reynolds.
But Belt said Haley has a really good ground game there.
“You can always be surprised by Iowa, because it’s really a test of the strength of your organization,” he said.
Haley is also planning a big ad buy in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“At this point, I don’t see Trump losing a single state,” Belt said. “I mean, he’s so far ahead.”
But McKee said Haley could keep it close with DeSantis in Iowa on Jan. 15, beat him in New Hampshire and be poised to leapfrog DeSantis with a strong second-place showing in her home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24.
“South Carolina could be the death knell for DeSantis,” McKee said. “And then he bails before he’s embarrassed in Florida (March 19). And then it’s really sort of Trump, Haley, and can Haley get it done or not? That actually is the scenario I think is most likely at this point.”
Belt said another low-performing candidate, Chris Christie, will probably try to hang on through New Hampshire.
And he said Ramaswamy will probably stay in as long as possible, because he’s got the self-funding and the ability to do it. And he likes the attention, Belt said.
But they’re all looking for the media attention, campaign contributions, volunteers and momentum going into the South Carolina primary, Belt said.
South Carolina is followed by Super Tuesday on March 5.
At this point, eight months before the Republican National Convention, DeSantis and Haley are “your two odds-on favorites” to emerge from primary season as the second candidate to Trump, Belt said.
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