A constant nuclear threat. The Zaporijjia power plant, located in southern Ukraine and occupied by the Russian army, is in danger of a nuclear disaster at any moment. The strikes, of which Moscow and kyiv accuse each other, follow one another in this area close to the front line. So what is the level of this nuclear risk? QR l’actu takes stock of this conflict in Ukraine with Nicloas Gosset, researcher at the Royal Institute of Defense and specialist in Russia.
Nuclear risk?
The Atomic Energy Agency is really alarmed by this situation around the plant, recalls Nicolas Gosset: “The fact that this plant is in the middle of hostilities with a front line in the Zaporizhjia region, which is increasingly active, all of this is clearly worrying”.
Putin’s downfall?
For Nicolas Gosset, Putin wants a victory in Ukraine and we are far from achieving such a goal: “What is notable is the fact that Vladimir Putin is becoming more and more dependent on those who can grant him a possible victory, namely Prigozhin, from the Wargner group, the Chechens from Karyrov. He becomes hostage to this situation“.
And for this specialist in Russia, the situation is delicate vis-à-vis certain ultra-radicals who want them to be more hard-line in relation to this war. And so this is clearly a threat to the regime. But beware of the possible succession warns Nicolas Gosset: “We must not rule out the scenario of having a leader even worse than Putin at the head of Russia, for example Yevgeny Prigozhin who now has declared political ambitions with the prospect of creating a political party. Now, it is also possible that we are witnessing a break-up scenario. The social discontent could be such that it brings about a revolt of the population”.
Resumption of negotiations?
Nicolas Gosset specifies that the possible pressures emitted by the Americans to impose future negotiations on the Ukrainians, these pressures are denied by the Biden administration.
On the side of the United States, we want to be very clear, continues the researcher, it is the Ukrainians who have the cards in hand to decide on the holding of negotiations. As for the idea that Russia would like negotiations that the Ukrainians refuse, this idea does not hold water with regard to the actions undertaken on the ground, concludes Nicolas Gosset.