2023-09-10 12:08:09
Loretta Preska, the judge of the southern district of New York who signed the sentence against Argentina in the trial for the expropriation of YPF, abruptly put the country in the face of a reality that the electoral campaign had been avoiding, distracted in the debate of two complementary versions of magical thinkingor: the bankrupt rackets of the latest Kirchnerism and the rising delusions of Javier Milei.
The Preska ruling imposed on Argentina the most burdensome compensation in its history: 16 billion dollars. It is advisable to make a summary review of the context: the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic is operating with negative reserves. It does not have dollars to support the daily turnover of imports essential to sustain economic activity. He The weight of this restriction has triggered the depreciation of the peso. This devaluation accelerates inflation to explosive levels, but the Government continues to simultaneously increase the deficit and public debt. It also fails to comply with the terms of the financial assistance agreement signed to mitigate this collapse. With the IMF, institutional and global lender of last resort.
From a political perspective, Preska’s ruling is a detailed illustration of one of the most sordid stories in the recent country: that of the dark link between the Kirchner family and the oil business. The US$16 billion compensation corresponds to a lawsuit originated by a historical partner of the Kirchners since the privatization of the Bank of Santa Cruz, the Eskenazi Group. This is the same group that Kirchnerism imposed as national shareholders on the Spanish of Repsol, in YPF. When Cristina expropriated the company and later settled with Repsol, the Eskenazi Group considered itself discriminated against. She assigned part of her rights so that her demand could be managed by the Burford Capital fund.
What in recent history describes with greater precision and volume The structural damage caused by Kirchnerism to the Argentine State is the design that he conceived with his approach to personal business for oil policy.
But Cristina is not a candidate to feel urged to give explanations. Sergio Massa is the candidate. If the large numbers of the Argentine economy are analyzed, For Massa’s ministry, Preska’s ruling is a final hammer that effectively ends his administration.
The only candidate who could make things worse until the final collapse is Javier Milei.
Milei can ignore the previous history of the Preska ruling. You can unleash diatribes left and right, but the 16 billion dollars of the new red exchange rate demand a different explanation.
Milei promised to dollarize the economy in the most immediate and exhaustive terms. She insinuated that she had confirmation of a foreign contribution of billions of dollars on her cell phone. Did you recalculate that miraculous message, incorporating the red exchange rate of the Preska ruling?
The London magazine The Economist exposed the democratic risk implied by Milei’s ravings, his intolerant and esoteric personality, his economic imagery barely masked as an exposition of theories, his structural political fragility.
The most interesting thing about that publication is that it denies Milei’s supposedly liberal character. If Milei is a threat to liberal democracy, althoughand inflame his proclamations with photocopies of Austrian professorship, it is more realistic to describe him as a local version of the global phenomenon of far-right populism.
Together for Change is stuck in that internal resignification. When the ordering axis distinguished populists and republicans, the unity of that coalition worked solidly. Now that that same axis shows rampant populism on the flanks and weakened liberal democracy in the centerOr, they wonder in Patricia Bullrich’s command if former president Mauricio Macri has browsed The Economist between his hours of bridge.
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