Here is the gist of the note from Attijari Global Research (AGR) “Weekly MAD Insights – Currencies” which covers the week from 04 to 08 July:
– The euro fell sharply against the dollar, losing -2.20% at the end of this week, falling from 1.0414 to 1.0185, its lowest level since 2002.
– The dollar appreciates sharply, reaching a 26-month high against the dirham.
– The USD/MAD parity posted a weekly performance of +1.41% at 10.1767, driven by the soaring international dollar.
– The banks’ foreign exchange position stabilized around -7.3 billion dirhams (MMDH) on a weekly average.
– Faced with inflationary pressures and the acceleration of monetary tightening by central banks, the scenario of a recession is becoming credible in the euro zone, thus inducing high volatility in the EUR/USD.
– Given the EUR/USD forecasts and the liquidity spreads on the foreign exchange market, the USD/MAD forecasts have been revised over the next 3 months. The dirham would appreciate against the dollar over 1, 2 and 3 months, during the summer period of 2022.
– Against the euro, the dirham should depreciate over 1, 2 and 3 months.