Hiam Al-Qusaifi
High-ranking American circles are concerned about the future of Lebanon in the coming months, in light of the escalation of Hezbollah’s influence, and are seeking to urge the US administration to abandon its current “neutrality” and indulge more in dealing with the crisis.
Washington’s approach to the Lebanese situation is not fixed. Sometimes it indulges in the details of local politics, as it deals with the issue of surrounding the army and maintaining a minimum level of stability by trying to help it militarily and financially or sending envoys to it. This is what is currently happening, as a remarkable American retreat from the Lebanese scene has been recorded for the first time in years.
This regression is starting to raise concerns within the US administration itself. High-ranking US military and political circles express deep concern over the Lebanese situation. These circles know Lebanon well, have long experience in it and with its political and military leaders, and pay special attention to it, amid the multiplicity of opinions in the US administration, with its political and security branches, about the way to approach the Lebanese file in light of regional intersections and internal collapse.
These circles indicate, with concern, that Lebanon is currently experiencing the most critical and delicate moments in its history, and warn that the coming months “will be difficult because they shape Lebanon’s future and the extent to which it is ultimately subject to the influence of Hezbollah and Iran… and it may not win this battle.”
The US concern goes beyond the issue of the parliamentary elections to the unprecedented level of Hezbollah’s influence on the Lebanese interior. These circles express this concern by saying that “Washington is losing Lebanon to Hezbollah, and the expected collapse may not exceed months. And when official institutions collapse, the only stronger institution that will remain standing is Hezbollah, with all its military, political and economic capabilities.
The size of these concerns prompted influential American figures in Congress and the administration to work in a pressured manner, in cooperation with the remainder of the Lebanese lobby, which is still active in Washington and able to deliver its voice, to urge the US administration to change its current policy, and not neglect Lebanon and leave it to its fate. They proceed from the fact that Lebanon is still a necessity in itself and for the region, and it should not be abandoned as a whole and not only from Washington’s friends in it. They are working to raise the voice at the heart of the administration so that the US intervention will be effective and rapid, in order to preserve the components of Lebanon and its stability, which is supposed to go beyond the role of neutrality or watchfulness to more effective action. They meet with what France, which works for Washington, shows in this regard, not to abandon Lebanon. According to the information, Paris, which meets with these circles on the same idea, has recently redoubled its efforts with Washington to activate Lebanon’s assistance and focus on not falling. There is reliance from American and Lebanese personalities on their vital and intense role in this context to positively influence Washington’s position.
There is great concern that official institutions will completely collapse within months, and that Hezbollah will remain steadfast alone
The information says that despite the unprecedented collapse in Lebanon, the loss of all the basic necessities of life, and the turmoil of institutions, their concern is that Lebanon does not openly turn into a failed state in the literal sense. As the fear that the current Lebanese path and Washington’s retraction from playing an influential role will lead to the international community gradually abandoning it, then all international sponsorships and conferences related to it economically and politically, and the IMF negotiations or the intervention of the World Bank, stop, and the countries of the international community shake its hand from it, As the United Nations. This matter is supposed to raise the concern of the Lebanese officials first and foremost, because for the first time in all the Lebanese tragedy that has been going on since 1975, Lebanon will be without international support. This is not a threat, but rather a warning from circles and personalities who still view the Lebanese experience as viable and do not want to abandon it. However, as it urges the US administration to have more positive involvement in Lebanon, it is counting on the movement of Lebanese officials and feeling the extent of the collapse the Lebanese are experiencing, even though they have done nothing over the past years, especially the last two years, and were not shaken by the explosion of August 4th.
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