2024-01-07 05:12:00
If you followed the reflections on the AM industry in the last months of 2023, you sometimes got the impression that the sector was moving towards the ‘great promise that was never fulfilled’ stage. Admittedly, the financial results of many 3D printer manufacturers are disappointing. But the underlying trend is positive. The sector is now back with both feet on the ground after yet another hype.
All changes are gradual
At the beginning of 2024, we can safely say that additive manufacturing has still not widely penetrated the manufacturing industry as a production technology. If you calculate the share of additive manufacturing in the total picture of production technology, you arrive at one figure after the decimal point. Does this justify the negative assessment of the position of the technology? No. Because beneath the surface, the technology is starting to find its way into the manufacturing industry – and far beyond.
The phase that the AM industry is going through is part of the sector’s maturation
The path of gradualism
When I recently discussed the important trends for 2024 with a Flemish entrepreneur from the manufacturing industry, he apologized when the word additive manufacturing came up. He had no clear vision on that. The company only uses 3D printing to create models in product development. Isn’t this the logical route through which 3D printing finds its way into a company? Anyone who thinks that companies simply put aside decades of known and trusted production techniques in their production environment when something new comes along has no idea how manufacturing companies work. When metal companies started using laser cutting in the 1990s as an alternative to punching and nibbling thin sheet metal, it took a long time before laser cutting became a standard machining technology. The same applies to 5-axis milling or de multitasking CNC-machines, you still don’t see them in every metal company. And what do you think of Industry 4.0, presented more than a decade ago at the Hannover Messe. How many companies have fully implemented this concept? Moreover, additive manufacturing often requires a different design and perhaps a different choice of materials. How many OEMs make that switch if a product will still be available for a long time?
3D printing for different reasons than always thought
Additive manufacturing is certainly finding its way into the broader manufacturing industry. Not every delivery of an industrial 3D printer makes the news. Manufacturers of AM systems find it more attractive to report that they have sold an expensive multi-laser system to an OEM or supplier to a high-tech sector such as aerospace than when they install a system with a small build chamber and one laser at an N Tier supplier to mechanical engineering. The sales figures last year were certainly not the numbers that the sector needs for healthy business operations. But there are also smaller suppliers and machine builders in the Benelux who invest in additive manufacturing. On Formnext, one of the manufacturers of a laser powder bed metal printer said that it expects to soon deliver a second machine to a small machine builder in the Benelux. Why a second metal printer? “Because our customer can make parts for which he can no longer find the professionals when milling or turning is required,” was the answer. Yes, manufacturing companies are gradually discovering 3D printing as a production technology, but not for the reasons that experts have proclaimed for years. Well, because they shorten their supply chain, are assured of parts, make themselves less dependent on suppliers (you often hear this as a reason for purchasing an SLS printer) or tackle the shortage of professionals. So the question comes from a different direction than what has always been asked.
Validation of the AM process is a long-term matter
From innovation to validated production
Actually, this applies just as well to OEMs. As was recently noted during the 3D printing event at Festo, solving bottlenecks in the supply chains is currently an important reason for the high-tech machine builder to push the supply industry when it comes to 3D metal printing. Here too, some AM experts may have been too optimistic: implementing design changes takes a lot of time. Because with the digital tools of 2024 you can easily adjust a 3D CAD model. But before you start installing parts in a machine, there is a whole validation process. And that can take years. Also among the manufacturers of AM systems themselves. This was recently confirmed by GE Additive in a conversation about their binder jetting machine, which was presented in a grand manner at Formnext 2022 and will become available to customers on the market sometime in 2024. Why only now? Putting the finishing touches to ensuring that the technology is ready for series production simply takes time, is GE Additive’s answer. The first reports about this 3D printer date from 2017.
The impact of reshoring
Meanwhile, North America appears to be embracing the technology faster than its Western European competition. Is that right? Don’t forget that Americans have a bigger mouth when it comes to marketing than Europeans. They are also more willing to take risks, which often goes wrong. However, in my opinion, a more important reason why additive manufacturing is doing so well in the US is reshoring. During the 2018 IMTS, I already spoke with researchers from the Oak Rich National Laboratory (ORNL) about printing tooling. The comment at the time was “we should be the first to develop 3D printing of tooling because we no longer have a tooling industry in the US. And we need that if reshoring continues.” Last year in the US there were about almost 300,000 new jobs in the industry created through reshoring and foreign direct investment. This is definitely a driver of 3D printing, especially in the US, thanks in part to Bidonomics, the current government’s major industry program.
The appetite to invest in 3D printing companies is somewhat less. Is that bad? No. The wheat is now separated from the chaff
Consolidation is inevitable
The dire scenarios for the AM industry are therefore, I think, unjustified. This is not to say that dark clouds are not gathering over some of the AM players. The number of providers is simply too large for the current growth rate, even if the market is growing at double digits. Healthy consolidation is inevitable. This has been delayed by the corona pandemic, but the sharp increase in interest rates over the past two years has put everyone back on the ground. Money is no longer free. Startups and especially scaleups in the AM industry are very good at burning money. It is clear that investors are not interested in this at the moment, according to Douglas K Woods of the American AMT (trade organization for the technology industry). The appetite to invest in 3D printing companies is somewhat less. Is that bad? No. The wheat is now separated from the chaff. That is healthy, in every sector.
Established newcomers
Moreover, you see another interesting trend: machine builders from ‘classic’ machine construction for the manufacturing industry are starting to take action. Makino, DMG Mori, Chiron, Schaeffler, Fronius. Bosch, KraussMaffei, Arburg, Grob. Look at Nikon, which acquired or rescued SLM Solutions last year. Should you label their moves into the AM industry as defensive or offensive? Both. They are machine builders who know the manufacturing industry inside and out and know that changes do not happen overnight. But what they also know is that producing one workpiece does not mean that your technology or machine is ready for series production. And what they know mainly from experience is that every technology and every machine is part of a production process. Machining with a multitasking machine, the Swiss army knife of the CNC industry, also involves steps that precede and follow the milling-turning operations. At this point, many manufacturers of 3D printers have focused mainly on their own AM technology for too long. Why do they continue to come up with their own names for processes that clearly fit within one of the standardized AM techniques? In the manufacturing industry it is about the process from idea to end product. The traditional machine builders know this. That is why you see, for example, that Makino is not only launching a DED machine, but at the same time an automation system and a concept to digitally control the workflow – in this case the repair of turbine components. Schaeffler, which will launch its own AM system on the market in 2024, knows that many products are constructed from several different materials. That is why it immediately opted for the development of a multi-material AM system. And then there is the digital embedding in the workflow of a production company. Isn’t it strange that AM parties are only now becoming concerned about this?
Worldwide support
Will these established parties take over the manufacturers of AM systems that are hanging on the ropes with very low stock prices and make acquisitions? This option seems realistic, were it not for the fact that the established market for production machines is also extremely fragmented. Some large parties such as Nikon have the resources for takeovers, but only time will tell whether this angle will throw a lifebuoy to the AM industry. Consolidation in the AM sector will therefore remain necessary. Because apart from the long time it takes to develop a validated production technology, there is also the issue of service. When major OEMs invest in production technology, they want to be assured of global support.
Grow up
Is all this bad? No. It is part of the development of an AM industry that is maturing. And a mature market means the technology will become more widely accepted. That additive manufacturing is considered one of the production techniques, with specific advantages and disadvantages. Which you use if the balance turns out to be positive after weighing up factors that are important to you. Just as you will sometimes opt for CNC machining, or injection molding, or sheet metal forming. If manufacturing companies include additive manufacturing in their considerations, the AM industry can grow.
Photo: multi-material printing at DMG Mori.
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