The United States does not have the luxury of abandoning Taiwan, and leaving it alone in the face of China, which is demanding the restoration of sovereignty over it. There are many reasons that force Washington to defend Taiwan, the most important of which is its strategic location near China, and its vital role in the global supply chains of semiconductors, which are used in most of the countries. Industries, ranging from cars, to the air and space industries, then the nature of the democratic system in Taiwan, and finally the negative impact of any possible American abandonment of Taiwan on Washington’s other allies in the region, from Japan to South Korea.
And the American political analyst of Indian origin, Nisid Hajri, says in an analysis published by Bloomberg News, that the interactions of internal politics in Taiwan during the next few months will pose a major challenge, and perhaps a greater opportunity for the United States.
Two visits are currently taking place in two places on opposite sides, but they highlight the dilemma that the United States faces in dealing with the Taiwan file. The first visit is for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who will stop in New York for a short while on her way to Guatemala and Belize, two of the few countries that still have diplomatic relations with Taipei. On her way back, she will stop in California to meet Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. This visit exacerbated tensions between Washington and Beijing, which vowed retaliation. On the other hand, the second visit of former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou to China comes, in the first visit of a Taiwanese leader since the escape of Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the nationalists from China in 1949 to the island of Vermosa, and the establishment of the Republic of China, which later became Taiwan.
Personal visit
Ma left the presidency of Taiwan in 2016, and he is the last president of the country from the founding party of the Kuomintang of Taiwan. He says that his visit to China is personal, with the aim of visiting the tombs of his ancestors, to confirm China’s argument that the two peoples on both sides of the Taiwan Strait represent one nation historically and culturally, and also politically from its point of view. Although there are no arrangements for Ma to meet with any of the senior officials in China during that visit, the arrangements may change.
Hagri, a specialist in foreign affairs and author of the book “Midnight Fury,” says that these two visits highlight the depth of the political division in Taiwan, ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for next January to choose Tsai’s successor. And as Americans know from their recent painful election experiences, the divisions will intensify as the election approaches.
Lai Shing-ti, Vice President of Taiwan for the Democratic Progressive Party, is expected to run in those elections, because the constitution does not allow Tsai to run for a new term. Tee will focus his election campaign on confirming his party’s defiant stance against China’s attempts to re-incorporate Taiwan into its sovereignty.
On the other hand, the leaders of the opposition Kuomintang Party, who have not yet decided on their candidate in the elections, will stress that their party is the only one capable of easing tensions on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, and dealing with Beijing directly. It is expected that China will direct arrows of criticism at the Democratic Progressive Party, in exchange for courtesy of the leaders of the Kuomintang Party, as it did when it eased some restrictions on travel and trade between both sides of the Taiwan Strait, after visits by party officials in recent months.
doubts
Hagri says in his analysis that the level of distrust of the United States will surprise many Americans who are used to being convinced that the Taiwanese feel grateful for the efforts that America is making to prevent China from invading their country.
Not only that, but the conspiracy theory that finds a strong resonance, especially among the supporters of the Kuomintang Party, looks at the plan of US President Joe Biden’s administration to support the semiconductor industry in the United States, as an American attempt to deprive Taiwan of its most skilled engineers in this industry, and deprive it of its global leadership. in the field of electronic chips. Some also believe that US defense policy planners seek to ignite a war between Taiwan and China in order to besiege the latter and drain its army.
Taiwanese media organizations associated with pro-Chinese billionaires have contributed to spreading these rumors as platforms for Chinese political propaganda. On the other hand, the statements of some important American figures about the need to blow up semiconductor factories in Taiwan, so that they do not fall into the hands of the Chinese, strengthen the position of supporters of the American conspiracy theory in Taiwan. It is expected that the United States will witness many of these statements that are harmful, and not beneficial, with the approaching battle of the 2024 US presidential elections.
to caution
And while Taiwanese politicians, especially the Kuomintang, should be careful when reviewing their relations with China so as not to arouse discontent among members of the US Congress, US leaders should control their statements about Taiwan in the coming months.
What’s more, while Taiwan needs to bolster its military capabilities to be able to fend off a Chinese invasion, the United States should not over-learn from the experience of Russia’s war against Ukraine. And any pressure on Taipei to quickly convert the non-permanent reserve force into an effective fighting force seems foolish and underestimated. Major and comprehensive reforms require patience and stronger participation from leaders and citizens in Taiwan, not imposition from outside.
Finally, the United States should keep channels of communication open with the leaders of the opposition Kuomintang party and the government. A good sign is that Taiwanese billionaire Terry Kuo, founder of the electronics giant Foxconn Technology Group, and the party’s likely candidate in the upcoming presidential elections, is currently visiting the United States.
And above all, Washington should strive to improve relations with China. There is one thing that all Taiwanese agree on, and that is that any war will be disastrous, so any American efforts to prevent this war will certainly be welcomed by all of Taiwan.
• The level of Taiwanese distrust of the United States will surprise many Americans who are used to believing that the Taiwanese are grateful for America’s efforts to prevent China from invading their country.
• Supporters of the Kuomintang Party view Joe Biden’s administration’s plan to support the semiconductor industry in America as an American attempt to deprive Taiwan of its most skilled engineers in this industry and its global leadership in the field of electronic chips.