Analysis after the 20th National Congress

(Central News Agency reporter Lv Jiarong, Taipei, 18th) In response to the direction of the CCP’s policy towards Taiwan after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Tao Yifen, an associate professor of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, said today that military reunification is not expected in the next five years, but the CCP will change from anti-independence to promoting reunification, as well as differentiation Taiwanese people.

Hosted by the Center for Mainland China Studies of National Taiwan University and the Ash Center of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and co-organized by the Office of the Legislative Councilor Jiang Qichen and the Office of the Legislative Councilor Ho Zhiwei, the exchange forum on “Challenges to Regional Stability and Economic Relations of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China” was held today. held in Taipei.

Tao Yifen attended the meeting online and pointed out that in the next 5 to 10 years, military reunification is unlikely, because China’s strength cannot easily fight the United States, and Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, subjectively believes that the situation is rising in the east and descending in the west. side, so it will not take risks easily.

Tao Yifen said that from the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the previous speeches, Xi Jinping’s work on Taiwan will be carried out from the direction of anti-independence to promoting reunification, and will continue to carry out civil attack and military intimidation against Taiwan in the form of “war forcing talks” to create external military threats. In order to divide the people of Taiwan, divide the people of Taiwan into “patriots” and “Taiwan independence elements” who are interfered by foreign forces, and then force Taiwanese to choose between “patriots” and “Taiwan independence”, causing the split of Taiwanese public opinion and panic among people. , and finally forced to the negotiating table.

Tao Yifen pointed out that this is a major instability factor in the region. In addition, 14 months after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be Taiwan’s presidential election. During this time, China will slow down the United States, but on the Taiwan issue, it will force the United States to express its disapproval of Taiwan. During the presidential election, he began to use a series of sharp power operations, false information, etc., claiming that this is the choice of “war and peace”, coupled with military pressure on Taiwan, etc., so that the people of Taiwan can conduct elections under the coercion of force.

Tao Yifen said, if the choice is made under the situation of force and coercion, is it still a free choice? Both the government and the opposition firmly oppose “one country, two systems”, and they should think about how the government and opposition should maintain Taiwan’s democratic system and make choices without external threats.

Xu Siqin, director of the Center for Mainland China Studies at National Taiwan University, said that Xi Jinping has talked many times about the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the reunification of Taiwan. During the reading on the 16th, Xi said “the reunification of the motherland must be realized” and “the reunification of the motherland” in terms of cross-strait relations and Taiwan policy. It will definitely come true”, as far as his impression is concerned, he has never seen it before.

In addition, when Xi finished speaking this paragraph, the audience applauded for the longest time this time. This is also an important phenomenon.

Xu Siqin said that we should also pay attention to the interaction between Xi Jinping and the People’s Liberation Army, and Xi Jinping’s grasp of military power is stable. When the PLA hears Xi’s talk about reunifying Taiwan and the motherland, the PLA will have “pressure”. Such interactions are potentially self-reinforcing, making both the speaker and the listener feel that the other is willing and that their goals can be achieved sooner. (Editor: Chen Peibing) 1111018