2023-08-14 13:46:00
After 40 years of democracy, the Argentine electorate once again showed signs of maturity. Three political forces took 86% of the votes in an election that lackedcompared to the total census, some 10 million voters and that added a million blank votes. It was a surprise the triumph of Javier Milei in the PASO 2023not because the vote to your strength is not rational, perhaps he is more rational than each vote of his opponentsbut because not even the candidate himself expected it in that magnitude: averaging the day he reported theft of ballots without suspecting that the papers were going to the polls.
He I vote for Milei is rational because it expresses everything that traditional politics could not solve. Beyond his proposals, some of them out of the law, look irrational and almost impossible to execute, the citizens expressed the search for alternatives. While is true that did it in the lowest cost choiceno less real is that the signs that cried out for a change were chaining with Neuquén, San Luis, San Juan and yesterday Santa Cruzwhere lost Kirchnerism after 32 years.
Before knowing the presidential candidacies, Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner anticipated an election of thirds and proposed, in what seemed like a weakness instead of a diagnosis, to pay attention to the floors of the PASO to think about an eventual runoff. In the distance his friends and rivals must recognize that, despite the defeatist mockery, the message was not wrong and for the first time the Argentine political system avoided bipartisanship or, as it was baptized for some years, the crack.
treat this monday analyze which strength will grow and which will lose weight in the general elections on October 22 enables subjectivities more than objective data.
Despite the Argentine electorate’s thirst for change, it is difficult to think, despite yesterday’s results, that Milei can win in the first round -must obtain more than 45% of the votes or 40% and at least 10 points of difference to the second-. His triumph in 16 provinces expresses the desire for change but to build yesterday’s numbers he was left with some portion of the votes on both sides of the podium. It would not be unreasonable to think that the numbers obtained yesterday work in your case as a ceiling.
The reasons are many and, of course, all debatable. But a few can be listed. in the PASO the territorial weight did not gravitate and there was freedom of action of the political bossesAxel Kicillof even got more votes than Sergio Massa in the province of Buenos Aires. As has happened in other primaries, many will remember the case of Guillermo Pereyra in Neuquén in 2013, when you go on to play for points the surprises are reduced. He dispersed vote usually returns to its traditional flow.
Also the absent and the white votes, there is no doubt that the forces with territorial development will recover those points. And that is where, beyond the discourse, the governors in office and those elected will enter to carve: it is not a secret that they feel mistreated by the ruling party or by the internal opposition. Besides, Milei is not known to have relations with any governor and, if the provincial results are reviewed, it was a force without gravitation and that went unnoticed in those rounds with a desire for change.
He ruling party made its worst choicebut no one imagined anything different. It can also be read as a fact of absolute rationality with the levels of inflation that drags the country. However, and beyond the principled intern who sought to satisfy the black Kirchner palate, the numbers he achieved, remaining less than 300,000 votes from a possible second roundopens one unconfessed satisfaction that it will need a change of strategy to be able to aspire to build something else. A 27% who felt in silence as the floor and not the ceiling, a relationship that is put into play every day on the way to the generals.
maybe the He took the hardest blow Together for Change that has been consolidating for years as the alternative to Peronism. Yes ok among the winners we must write down Mauricio Macri, which prevailed in the internal ones beyond a forced coexistence of winners and losers, the open competition for Milei is a front that they did not imagine having at that level. Together for Change also lost votes and although the data obtained seems to be more clearly the floor than the ceilingit is also known that its internal, for the level of confrontation, could not be a linear sum. The work will surely be focused on recover the discontents that went towards an ultraliberal option. The double front that must be resolved, as opposition and as a solid option for change, will not be an easy task, despite the resounding victory in CABA and a powerful election in the Province of Buenos Aires.
Los thirds were ratified in the STEP and now it remains to know where the ceilings of the forces are. If yesterday’s numbers are reviewed, it becomes clear that the run-off scenario is the most likely that will be seen in October and that there are no elements to prematurely leave anyone out of the race: little more than 700 thousand votes separate the first from the third.
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