2023-10-29 09:38:23
Strategy. Riorda says that Milei aims to sharpen the Kichnerism-anti-Kichnerism rift. Photo: diffusion
The new president in Argentina will be decided between the Peronist Sergio Massa and the libertarian Javier Miley. The political scientist from that country, Mario Riorda, analyzes the recent electoral campaign and offers some keys to understand what may come from this moment.
-Peruvians – possibly due to historical experience – wonder how an Economy Minister from a country with high inflation can be the first option to be president. What explains Massa’s victory in the first round?
-In Argentina, as in much of the Latin American political system, it works much more when there are broken party systems, what is known as the “second best option.”
-The second best option.
-Or much more specific from Argentina, the logic of the least bad works. The great struggle in the campaign was between anger – represented by Javier Milei – and fear – represented by Sergio Massa. Anger brought together discontent – even violent – with the system, the perception of a country disintegrated and in free fall.
-What brought together fear?
-To people who still have a political identity with Peronism, with the value of the State, but, above all, who were afraid of a candidate like Milei. In the last twenty days of the campaign, those around him said things that are very dear to Argentine political consensus, such as statements about the Malvinas, about cutting relations with the Vatican…
-What was said about the victims of the dictatorship.
-About breaking the democratic consensus on whether or not there was state terrorism. These issues are too strong for fear not to have emerged, which ended up taking precedence in society.
-What does Milei’s voter see in him?
-Milei is rewarded not for ordering but for breaking bad things. One would have to imagine a kind of metaphor in which Milei is seen as a “hammer” candidate, a hitting candidate. Even many of his own voters were dead set against many of his public policyHowever, they considered it effective in breaking a bad system and past. That ability scared a lot because of his ways and consequences, I’m not saying to everyone, but a large part of the electorate that did not support him. Milei is the circumstantial expression of national catharsis in the face of the efforts of the two great coalitions that dominated the last twelve years in Argentina. Milei is an emerging discontent.
-The hammer”.
-But without a structure or, in the case of the runoff, with a structure rented or lent by its new partners.
-Will this dispute between anger and fear continue in the second round? Milei is trying to change her speech somewhat.
-There are strategic changes in the two forces. Both understand that there is a critical context, but the way they face it is different. In Milei’s case, particularly with her new partnerships…
-Patricia Bullrich.
-Y Mauricio Macri, they try to reinforce the blaming of Kichnerism. Whether it works for you or not, we’ll see. But the old rift of Kichnerism versus anti-Kichnerism is pointed out.
-And in the case of Massa?
-We must not forget that the 36% it obtained is the worst record for Peronism in recent Argentine democratic history, which implies that its offer to get out of this bad present is that of a government of national unity, of articulation of broad consensus. . That is to say, it is not a defensive proposal, but an offensive one, of great agreements. One of the speeches that caught my attention the most on election day was that of Sergio Massa and the idea of a government of national unity with an agreement of programs and not of people, something unprecedented in Argentina.
-Massa is someone with a long political career. What kind of profile does he have?
-Massa was everything, from mayor, legislator, chief of staff, minister. He is an actor with an impressive political will. He would say that he is brutally pragmatic, with the ability to build and accumulate power. And that is what Peronism has ended up accepting from him.
-Who represents a greater danger to Argentine democracy?
-Sergio Massa may be liked or not liked –in fact he currently has a very consolidated negative differential–, he could create a bad government –or perhaps a good one, we don’t know–, but I don’t think he represents, at all, any type of democratic risk. . However, in Milei’s expressions and much more of those around her there are questions about the democracy, about the possibility of breaking social consensus that could generate violence. And I am not referring to physical violence – although I do not rule it out either – but to the way in which the debate would take place in Argentina, especially in a context of economic and social crisis. So I don’t see a democratic risk with Massa and there are alarms that Milei and personalities around her have generated, which apparently they would be trying to soften now.
-One of the analyzes I read is that Milei became confident after the results of the PASO, which were very favorable to him. Has Peronism’s mobilization capacity recovered?
-It was not like that in the PASO, but it was evident in the first round. In fact, many of the places where Peronism managed to reverse Milei’s performance in the primaries was in provinces with Peronist governors. You should never underestimate the weight of structures. Curiously, these had been relativized in their importance during the primaries. More than a task of mobilization, these structures carried out a task of raising awareness, of interpellation. Peronism was one step away from falling into the mistake of getting angry with the voter who elected a radical right-wing force. He left that level of initial hostility, which happened a few days after Milei’s victory in the primaries, and changed his speech towards a more interpellation format. That is to say, if today there are serious and serious problems, which no one denies, the capacity for damage and future loss with Milei would be superlative. This process of interpellation was much more rational and there the structure played a role of party evangelization.
-Do you include Milei in this generation of far-right politicians seen in the region?
-One hundred percent, yes. He is part of this generation that has created a kind of new international of the extreme right.
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