[Beijing, 14th Archyde.com]-China has made minor revisions to its “dynamic zero” policy to strictly curb infections over the new coronavirus, but there are no signs of a breakthrough, and vaccination is lagging behind. This is likely to continue to cast a dark shadow on the Chinese economy.
The government has not provided a schedule for breaking out of the dynamic zero policy. These policies are expected to continue next year, and uncertainty over residents and businesses is expected to prolong.
Concerns have been further heightened by the recent sporadic outbreaks of infections, lockdowns (city blockades) in some cities, and the emergence of the highly infectious new corona variant “BA.5”.
In addition to the effects of lockdown, smoldering real estate market problems and global economic uncertainty weigh heavily on the Chinese economy.
This week, 25 million Shanghai residents have been required to undergo a mass inspection of the new Corona. Nomura estimates that as of 11th, 31 cities are implementing full or partial lockdown. These are areas that contribute to a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), affecting about 250 million people.
In contrast to foreign countries trying to coexist with Corona, China’s President Xi Jinping emphasizes the lives saved by strict measures.
It has been pointed out that China continues to be trapped in the success of past infection control measures, even though the vaccine has now significantly reduced the case fatality rate of the new corona.
Mizuho’s chief Asian FX strategist, Ken Jeong, said on the 13th, “China’s Zero-COVID policy will increase export orders and production as other countries in the world resume their activities and the supply chain is normalized. It will shift to foreign countries. “
“The world cannot wait for China to boost herd immunity,” said Joerg Wuttke, chairman of the European Union (EU) Chamber of Commerce.
China has been slow to acquire herd immunity as a flip side of stopping the spread of infection and the increase in deaths.
Still, they have not embarked on aggressive vaccination measures. The city of Beijing has planned to require vaccination when entering crowded areas, but withdrew last week due to strong opposition on the Internet.
Moreover, China has not approved the import of a more effective “messenger RNA (mRNA)” vaccine, and its own development has not progressed sufficiently.
“The restrictions will not be lifted until the elderly have been vaccinated, maybe after the fall of 2023,” Wuttke said.
China has vaccinated nearly 90% of its 1.41 billion population, and nearly 56% have completed their third vaccination. Still, about 30 million elderly people have not been vaccinated yet.
Jean Zofen, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Los Angeles, said the Chinese vaccine lacks data on its safety and efficacy against the Omicron variant, leading to low confidence in the vaccine by both the government and the public. Pointed out. “If China relied on its own vaccines and the population’s vaccination rate was high, it would have shifted its focus from the eradication of infection to the control of aggravation and mortality by now,” he said. ..
It is true that China is moving towards more accurate corona measures, and it is not expected that the nightmare of a two-month lockdown in Shanghai will reappear.
The central government is instructing local governments not to unnecessarily implement any restrictions. According to economists, the sophistication of measures has reduced the likelihood that lockdowns will disrupt the global supply chain, as in April and May.
For example, recently, the quarantine period for immigrants has been shortened to 7 days, reducing recent travel history surveys in Japan.
Mr. Xi Jinping, who wants to ensure that he will enter the unprecedented top three term at this year’s Communist Party Congress, is under pressure to make a delicate steering to prevent the rapid increase in the number of infected people and deaths of the new corona while avoiding a sharp decline in the economy.
Xi said last month that the Zero-COVID policy was “correct and effective” in Wuhan, where the new corona first occurred, and emphasized that the temporary economic impact was better than the loss of life.
“Mr. Xi has stated that he will achieve a final victory over Corona,” said Chang Dao-in, a former associate professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
(Reporter by Tony Munroe)