Argentina Election Uncertainty: Impact on Sovereign Bonds and Stock Market Performance

2023-11-13 22:19:10

Sovereign bonds in dollars and the shares of Argentine companies started the week with negative variations, both in the local market and abroad, in another day with volatility due to the uncertainty of investors regarding the result of the second electoral round, which will be done in a few days.

The declines in the prices of Argentine assets also occurred on the first day after the presidential debate, which pitted for the last time the Minister of Economy and official candidate, Sergio Massa, against the leader of La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei.

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“With an electoral result still open, operators have been exhibiting more prudent behavior. In addition to the complex political context after the fragmentation of the opposition, as of December 10, a stabilization plan must be urgently addressed in the midst of growing economic imbalances. “said analyst Gustavo Ber.

The S&P Merval index this Monday recorded a drop of 3.5% measured in pesos and dollars, with a large part of the leading panel in red. The main losses occurred in the assets of YPF and Ternium, which fell 5% and 4.8%, respectively. The only increases were those of Comercial Del Plata (1.3%), Edenor (1.1%) and Cablevisión (0.1%).

The performance of Argentine equities was a little less negative on Wall Street. The assets in that market were mixed, although the declines predominated, partly also affected by the negative variations with which the main stock indices of that market operate.

The main falls in Argentine stocks in the United States occurred in those of Loma Negra, which fell 3%, followed by those of the energy companies Vistas (-2%) and YPF (-1.6%). The increases, meanwhile , were led by Supervielle, Edenor and Irsa, which finished the round with advances of 1.9%, 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

Likewise, fixed income in dollars operated downward. Sovereign securities that govern under foreign legislation registered falls throughout the entire maturity curve, led by those that expire in the year 2041 (-0.9%), while country risk advanced 19 basis points to stand at 2,494 units. .

Dollar bonds thus accumulated three consecutive days of decline. However, in the accumulated results of the last month they are still in green. The main increases are observed in securities that mature in 2035, whose prices have accumulated a rise of 3.5%, and the smallest are those that mature in 2041, which advance 1 percent.

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