Derived from the drastic enhance in electrical energy consumption that’s being skilled within the nation, in flip as a consequence of the excessive temperatures and lack of rain, it’s being analyzed to increase the emergency within the nationwide interconnected system (SNI) for a further month. legitimate from March 18 to Might 31, indicated the Minister of Vitality and Mines (MEM), Víctor Hugo Ventura.
Whereas the Administrator of the Wholesale Market (AMM), the operator of {the electrical} system within the nation, considers the extension crucial for one month.
Vitality consumption elevated 9.5% within the interval from January to April 2024, with 4,399.3 gigawatt hours (GWh) in opposition to 4,17.34 GWh in the identical interval of 2023, in response to AMM information.
In the meantime, the file for historic most demand has been damaged a number of instances throughout 2024 and the utmost was recorded on Might 8 with 2,121.8 megawatts (MW), which represents 7.7% greater than the 1,970 MW of the identical date of the earlier 12 months.
That’s to say, the expansion of consumption, with respect to the nationwide common on the finish of every 12 months and the utmost demand, has doubled, in response to the historic information consulted.
Earlier AMM studies reported that the typical consumption progress charge on the finish of every 12 months from 2017 to 2021 was 3.13%. Though within the years previous to 2021 there had been a discount, its annual conduct has subsequently been variable since in 2021 it grew 8.2%; in 2022, 3.26 and in 2023, 6.32%.
In the meantime, the demand for electrical vitality has mirrored a mean enhance equal to three.4% yearly between 2017 and 2022, in response to the examine by the Cabi agency, challenges and alternatives within the scarcity of the electrical energy sector in Guatemala.
So, the emergency settlement “will certainly be prolonged for 2 or 4 weeks,” a call that’s being analyzed and will likely be taken within the coming days, as a result of there’s nonetheless uncertainty about when the wet season might start, so “to have safety” the deadline could be prolonged to June 30 on the newest, he added.
The president of the Nationwide Electrical Vitality Fee (CNEE), Luis Ortiz, indicated that they haven’t obtained the session from the MEM about the potential for persevering with with the emergency. The process is that the AMM does the research and sends the appliance; Then the MEM requests an opinion from the fee, however in the mean time stated request has not been obtained and no opinion could be issued on the matter.
Affected vitality matrix
In the meantime, the warmth wave continues and the wet season has not but utterly begun whereas the drought that has affected the nation for months as a result of El Niño phenomenon persists. The mix of those components has led to a name to generate extra vegetation that run on sources derived from oil and coal.
Within the first quarter of this 12 months, hydroelectric era fell 22-4% and biomass era fell by -6.60%, whereas coal era needed to enhance 156% and petroleum derivatives greater than 115%, in response to information of the AMM.
Whereas in April a major enhance was noticed within the era {of electrical} vitality from fossil fuels, reminiscent of bunker and coal, with will increase of 145.3% and 50.96%, in comparison with the identical month in 2023. Throughout that interval, the era decreased by 14.1%. hydroelectricity, and the contribution with pure gasoline additionally decreased. Of different sources, biomass elevated in that very same month by 11.1% and likewise wind, whereas photo voltaic remained secure.
In latest statements Ventura acknowledged that “happily” the chance was noticed within the second week of February, they labored along with the AMM and the Nationwide Institute of Electrification (Inde) “so thank God we’re passing the disaster,” stated the minister, by saying how Guatemala is in comparison with the remainder of the international locations which have utilized a collection of measures, together with rationing, which has not occurred right here.
Issues and options
To this query, the Minister of Vitality responded that it is because of financial progress after 4 years of difficulties skilled for the reason that pandemic and that extra employees have returned to their work actions within the workplaces, whereas the apply of teleworking has been diminished. . One other issue is that top temperatures require the usage of air con and followers.
Relating to the nation’s capability to cowl and provide on the required charge, he stated that it has been achieved as a result of emergency measures adopted, which incorporates reconnection of era vegetation that weren’t working reminiscent of Orazul and a barge that’s about to be linked. Moreover, at instances when the system wants it, exports are restricted.
In any case, within the quick time period he stated {that a} tender for emergency buy ought to be accelerated, however this is able to be performed till there’s efficient certainty {that a} very excessive progress in demand will likely be maintained, a side that the distributors should analyze.
Though he stated that if a call is made as such, the time period and quantity will depend upon these analyses, he talked about that for instance 150 megawatts might be required for 3 years in order that it makes financial sense, but in addition proceed with the method of the fifth long-term bidding contained within the Era Growth Plan (PEG 5), which might be 1,100 megawatts.
The president of the AMM, Silvia Alvarado, responded individually that some causes for the rise in demand are the usage of air con, but in addition the usage of vitality for pumping water, for the reason that variety of wells and water has grown. which is pumped for irrigation and different makes use of.
He considers that that is going to be seasonal and it’s anticipated that when climate situations enhance, this demand will likely be modulated a bit of higher, however it’s nonetheless not recognized with certainty what conduct there will likely be, “as a result of we now have by no means seen something like this.”
He additionally defined that each the AMM, the MEM, the CNEE, the distributors and different entities, began a marketing campaign for the environment friendly use of vitality. The objective is for folks to “obtain the message that electrical energy is a crucial good, that it’s not being rationed, but it surely shouldn’t be wasted both.”
Higher financial system
Carmen Urizar, guide and former president of CNEE, agreed that at the least two facets are being mirrored, and that’s that the financial system has develop into a bit of extra industrialized, so the demand for manufacturing has grown, other than local weather change, with seasonal hotter.
“The expansion of the business is vital as a result of, though it locations {the electrical} system in a considerably complicated state of affairs, as a result of extra demand requires extra provide, it’s excellent news as a result of it’s a state of affairs the place there’s a higher financial system.”
When referring to the potential for a scarcity of provide, he stated that the minister acknowledged originally of the 12 months that it is vitally possible that extra put in energy and vitality will likely be wanted, so there have to be the capability to usher in new era vegetation.
Relating to the charges, Ortiz stated that people who will likely be in power from August will embrace the era prices of the Might, June and July quarter, however the impact on present prices will not be but anticipated.
AMM: Growth is important
Jorge Alvarado, supervisor of the AMM, responded to Prensa Libre that based mostly on the prevailing situations and anticipated for the approaching weeks, it’s thought-about crucial to increase the settlement that declares the SNI in an emergency state of affairs.
“The situations for which the declaration request was made prevail, reminiscent of the consequences of the El Niño Phenomenon, that are manifested with a lower in hydroelectric era and a rise in temperature, which impacts the rise in demand” .
He added that gasoline transportation situations within the area additionally stay current and the necessity to guarantee the provision of gasoline for thermal era persists, which makes up for the discount in hydroelectric era indicated above.
“As well as, as a result of variety of hours of steady operation of the producing models, the quantity and frequency of failures and their length has elevated, making it crucial
have era to interchange these models that exit of operation,” stated the chief.
Relating to the deadline, he stated {that a} request for an extension of another month has initially been raised, “however it would proceed to be monitored relying on whether or not or not the aforementioned situations persist.”
EEGSA explains progress
The Electrical Firm of Guatemala, SA (EEGSA), defined that the expansion in demand comes with a sustained development for the reason that finish of 2022, and at a macro degree it’s seen that there’s a higher want for vitality on account of components reminiscent of an increasing business, business exercise higher and the excessive temperatures that develop into extra intense in 2024.
Because of this, the EEGSA studies that demand elevated by 8%. “Above all, as a result of the usage of extra air con and cooling tools is important, each in business and on the residential degree.”
EEGSA buyer demand has proven important progress within the first 4 months of 2024, surpassing figures for a similar interval in earlier years, he added.
“This enhance has been influenced by a warmer and longer summer time, in addition to stability in electrical energy charges, particularly in the residential sector” which grew 5.9%.
The sectors business and industrial have skilled the most important will increase in demand, with 8% and 11.6%. Whereas the federal government and self-production sectors have additionally grown, though their complete contribution stays smaller.
Relating to the impression on charges, the distributor indicated that the present contracts permit for satisfactory administration of fluctuations within the alternative market, which is why, so far, “we don’t see a rise in contract prices derived from the climate. The buying matrix has a 70% renewable margin, even within the dry season.”
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