Back in January, Intel executives proudly announced that the company would be the first ASML customer to receive a scanner capable of handling ultra-hard ultraviolet (EUV) lithography at high numerical aperture. Now ASML is making it clear that the number of customers in this area has grown to five.
Image Source: ASML, Archyde.com
Recall that Intel is going install TWINSCAN EXE:5200 series lithographic machine by the end of 2024 at its new facility in Ohio, which is yet to be built. This equipment will allow Intel to produce 18A technology components not only for its own needs, but also for third-party customers, among which defense customers from the United States should appear. After all, purchasing next-generation lithography equipment for Intel should be a critical step in regaining technology leadership by 2025. The cost of one scanner of the new series will reach $340 million against the current $150 million apiece.
According to VLSI Research experts, for Intel, earlier participation in the purchase of next-generation lithographic scanners is the result of realizing the mistake of the beginning of the last decade, when it invested more than its partners (TSMC and Samsung) in the development of ASML EUV solutions, but did not begin to purchase serial scanners a few years later because it was not able to switch to using EUV lithography within 10nm technology, as originally planned. The company has yet to start using EUV scanners in products manufactured using the Intel 4 process technology, which was previously considered 7nm.
Switching to scanners with a high aperture value will reduce the size of transistors by 66%. Intel is determined to achieve an edge in this area through ASML’s efforts, but no one guarantees success for the latter, so this is a serious risk for the former of the companies. As explains Archyde.com Referring to the comments of ASML representatives, the company now has orders for the manufacture of five high-aperture EUV pilot scanners, and the number of customers to receive them has also reached five, and after 2025 they expect to receive more than five serial copies. Now, according to ASML representatives, one of the main problems in the way of creating new equipment is the notorious shortage of semiconductor components, which are also needed for its manufacture.
The economics of this business is not so simple, although in fact ASML has become a monopoly in the field of advanced lithography and can dictate its terms to customers. The possibility of payback of equipment is determined by its performance and the ability of market participants to buy it. In an environment where new equipment is rapidly becoming more expensive, the number of ASML customers mastering advanced lithography is steadily decreasing. The fact that five customers have already been found for expensive new-generation scanners allows us to count on curbing the trend towards industry consolidation. By the end of the decade, the annual turnover of the semiconductor industry should approach $1 trillion, so there should be enough money for all participants in the production chain.
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