The inaugural Austin Championship at Omni Barton Creek’s Fazio Canyons Course presents a unique analytical puzzle: with no prior PGA Tour history, recent form emerges as the strongest predictive metric, a trend confirmed by data from the last decade.
Since 2015, 25 full-field events at new venues have shown that a player’s last 24 rounds correlate slightly better with results than at familiar courses, making form a key factor this week.
The course itself, designed by Tom Fazio in 1999 and recently restored, presents a traditional par-72 layout of 7,451 yards winding through limestone cliffs and Short Spring Branch creek. The field is heavily composed of players from last week’s event, with 99 of this week’s 122 entrants—nearly 80%—having competed in Cabo, suggesting a high degree of continuity in player performance.
Right back to work for the 19-year-old champ 💪 Blades Brown is teeing it up this week in the inaugural @AustinChampTX! pic.twitter.com/UOs881m7lq
Several players stand out based on their recent play. Blades Brown, the newest PGA Tour winner, arrived fresh off a playoff victory in Cabo where he shot a final-round 63. At 19 years and five months old, he is younger than Jordan Spieth was at his first Tour win and is now among the betting favorites.
Seamus Power has also been strong this fall, with three top-eight finishes in four starts, including a T8 in Cabo where he gained eight strokes on the field over the final two days.
David Ford, a 24-year-old in his first PGA Tour campaign, has improved. He gained over six strokes off the tee in Cabo, marking the eighth consecutive event he beat the field in that category. His approach play has also become more consistent, with multiple strokes gained on approach in three of his last four starts, key to his two best results of the year, a T3 in Utah and fifth in Cabo.
He is seen as a top-20 play this week. Similarly, Rico Hoey has excelled in ball-striking metrics, ranking first in Total Driving and Greens in Regulation on the European Tour, making him a strong contender to secure his FedExCup top-100 status.
Tee times for the first and second round of the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions pic.twitter.com/Re4KQ6LCTB
Local knowledge could be a factor, with Texas native Pierceson Coody receiving support. His putting has shown extreme variability, ranking among the best one week and the worst the next, but his ball-striking has been consistently elite. He is considered a value play in a home-state event.
Ben Kohles, born in Dallas, also presents an intriguing case; he has not missed a cut in five months, with 12 consecutive starts finishing no worse than 29th. Over the last 20 rounds, he ranks highly in strokes gained off the tee, approach, and scrambling, making him a player in form on a course that could suit his game.
Austin Championship 🇺🇸 A new PGA Tour event: a 120-man, 72-hole stroke-play field, 500 FedExCup points and $6m purse. Fazio Canyons is a renovated par 72, 7,451-yard Tom Fazio layout with limestone cliffs, mature trees and creek hazards. Initial profile it as a full-length… pic.twitter.com/H8No2Egw9N
