2023-11-24 00:13:27
Many Canadians are watching for the first indication that the Bank of Canada is preparing to cut interest rates in 2024.
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Over the past few weeks, some good news has added up that can serve as an indicator of the future of interest rates.
First, five-year Government of Canada bonds have fallen precipitously since mid-October, reaching 3.80%, their lowest level since the end of summer, the mortgage broker noted on Wednesday. Robert Jennings.
According to him, this index is generally the only one to significantly influence fixed mortgage rates in Canada.
Another economic indicator is also pointing in the right direction.
“As mortgage brokers, we are already seeing fixed rates falling…because inflation is falling. […] L’IPC [indice des prix à la consommation] American was below average. I do not claim to be an economist, [rendement des obligations] can rise as quickly as it fell – but we should benefit from some rate relief in 2024,” he detailed to Canadian Mortgage Professional.
While interest rate increases over the past 20 months have cast a chill on the country’s real estate market, some provinces can hope to avoid the slump.
According to Mr. Jennings, the province of Newfoundland should experience a stable and steady year, marked by gradual progress rather than spectacular growth.
The province hardest hit by the slowdown remains Ontario. The deputy chief economist of the Royal Bank of Canada, Robert Hogue, indicates that, excluding the pandemic, home resales there have reached their lowest level since the global financial collapse of the late 2000s.
However, the Capitale-Nationale market recently defied predictions, as residential sales increased by 6% in September.
In the Montreal metropolitan region, the number of residential sales remained moderate in September and below its historical average for this period.
Across the country, there is no indication that the market will reverse in 2024 and experience a new surge, said Mr. Hogue, less optimistic than Mr. Jennings.
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