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The California governor’s race has taken a sharp turn as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s former partner, Xavier Becerra, secures a critical campaign boost from a surprising ally: former Republican Congressman Jeff Hilton. In a bold endorsement, Hilton—who once served as a GOP representative from Oklahoma—declared that voting for Republican nominee Chad Bianco is tantamount to “a vote for two Democrats,” a statement that underscores the high-stakes nature of the November election. With Becerra leading in polls and Democratic turnout expected to be decisive, the race has become a microcosm of California’s shifting political landscape, where even former adversaries are weighing in on the implications of a potential GOP governor.
Hilton’s intervention comes as Becerra, the incumbent attorney general, has positioned himself as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, facing minimal opposition from within his own party. Meanwhile, Bianco—a former state senator and Trump-aligned candidate—has struggled to gain traction against Becerra’s well-funded campaign and deep ties to California’s Democratic establishment. The endorsement, framed as a warning to Republicans about the consequences of a GOP victory, adds a layer of complexity to the race, where every vote could determine control of the state’s highest office for years to come.
Becerra, who has served as attorney general since 2017, has leveraged his experience in healthcare and criminal justice to appeal to swing voters, including independents and disaffected Republicans. His campaign has emphasized his record on climate policy, labor rights, and infrastructure—issues that resonate in a state where Democratic margins have historically been wide but are now under pressure from national trends. Meanwhile, Bianco’s campaign has focused on opposing Becerra’s policies, particularly on immigration and crime, though his path to victory remains uncertain amid low enthusiasm among Republican voters.
The race has also drawn attention for its potential to influence down-ballot contests, including state legislative seats and ballot measures. With California’s governor holding significant power over the state budget, environmental regulations, and criminal justice reforms, the outcome could have far-reaching consequences for the nation’s most populous state.
Hilton’s Endorsement: A Warning to Republicans
In a statement released earlier this week, Hilton—who represented Oklahoma’s 2nd District from 2011 to 2017 before switching parties—argued that electing Bianco would not only secure a Republican governor but also weaken Democratic control of the state legislature. “A vote for Chad Bianco is a vote for two Democrats,” Hilton said, referencing the likelihood that a GOP governor would face a Democratic-controlled legislature, leading to gridlock and potential veto overrides. His endorsement, while unusual, reflects growing concerns among moderate Republicans about the party’s direction under former President Donald Trump’s influence.
Hilton’s shift aligns with a broader trend of former GOP officials breaking ranks with Trump, particularly in states where the party’s hardline stance on immigration and culture wars has alienated centrist voters. In California, where Republicans have struggled to expand their base beyond Orange County and rural areas, Hilton’s message carries weight as a signal that even some conservatives see Bianco’s candidacy as a liability.
Becerra’s campaign did not immediately respond to Hilton’s remarks, but the endorsement has been met with skepticism from some Republican strategists, who question whether it will resonate with the party’s base. “What we have is a message for the suburban voters who might be tempted to hold their nose and vote for Bianco,” said one GOP consultant, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But it’s not going to move the needle with the Trump voters who are the only ones turning out in sizeable numbers for Bianco.”
Becerra’s Path to Victory: Polls, Fundraising, and Key Battlegrounds
Becerra’s campaign has benefited from strong fundraising, with the attorney general raising over $45 million in the first half of 2024, according to Federal Election Commission filings. His lead in polls—currently hovering around 15 points over Bianco in key battlegrounds like Orange County and the Inland Empire—has been attributed to his ability to appeal to Latino voters, a demographic that has become increasingly pivotal in California elections.
However, Becerra’s campaign faces challenges in turning out his base, particularly among younger voters who have grown disillusioned with Democratic incumbents. Bianco, meanwhile, has focused his efforts on mobilizing Republican voters in areas where Trump performed well in 2020, including the Central Valley and parts of Southern California. His campaign has also highlighted Becerra’s past support for policies like Proposition 47, which reduced penalties for certain drug offenses, framing it as a threat to public safety.
What’s Next: Early Voting, Ballot Measures, and the Role of Third Parties
The next critical phase of the race will begin with early voting, which starts on October 1. Both campaigns are expected to ramp up get-out-the-vote efforts in the final weeks, with Becerra focusing on urban centers like Los Angeles and San Francisco, while Bianco targets rural and suburban areas where Trump’s support was strong. The outcome of key ballot measures—including Proposition 1, which would fund homelessness programs, and Proposition 2, addressing mental health services—could influence voter turnout and the overall political climate.
Third-party candidates, including Libertarian nominee Mark Merritt and Peace and Freedom Party nominee Fariah Rouf, are also expected to play a role in siphoning votes from both major-party candidates. While neither is likely to win, their presence could affect the margin in a race that is projected to be decided by less than 100,000 votes.
As the election draws nearer, attention will also turn to the potential impact of national trends, including inflation concerns, immigration debates, and the state of the economy. California’s governor will not only shape the state’s future but also set a precedent for how progressive policies fare in a post-Trump political landscape.
With less than two months until Election Day, the race remains fluid. Becerra’s campaign appears to be on solid footing, but Hilton’s endorsement serves as a reminder that even in a Democratic-leaning state, the margins are razor-thin—and every vote counts.
What do you think will decide this race? Will Becerra’s experience and fundraising edge out Bianco’s grassroots appeal, or will Hilton’s warning resonate with enough Republicans to shift the outcome? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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