Bitcoin traders are increasingly confident in a price recovery, with options data indicating a 35% probability the cryptocurrency will surpass $80,000 by the end of June, according to a report from on-chain options platform Derive.xyz.
The bullish sentiment marks a significant shift from February, when bitcoin prices dipped toward $25,000 and options skew – the difference in price between call and put options – reached panic lows of -25%. Options skew has since rebounded to around +10%, signaling a reduction in hedging against potential price declines and a growing expectation of stable or rising prices. A positive skew indicates that call options are more expensive than put options, reflecting a bullish market outlook.
“Current options pricing shows roughly a 35% probability that BTC will reach above $80K by the end of June,” Derive.xyz founder Nick Forster told CoinDesk. “Combined with the recovery in skew, this activity suggests many traders expect bitcoin to recover toward the $80K level between June and September.”
The recovery in options skew is further supported by a surge in “put writing,” or the selling of put options, across various trading venues. This indicates that traders are willing to accept downside risk in exchange for premium income, a strategy consistent with expectations of price stabilization or appreciation. Put options grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell Bitcoin at a specific price on or before a specific date, and are often used as insurance against price drops.
Realized volatility has also decreased, falling from 91% at the beginning of March to 54% as of today, according to Derive. This suggests a period of relative price stability following earlier market turbulence.
As of today, Bitcoin is trading near $70,000, representing a nearly 5% increase for the month, according to CoinDesk data. The shift in sentiment comes despite earlier fears of a broader crypto market crash, which now appear to be overstated based on current derivatives market activity.
