2023-04-18 21:42:00
This Tuesday, the rise of the blue dollar and the financials (MEP and CCL) set new records, which analysts attribute to the cocktail made up of the elections, proposals for the dollarization of the economy and the agricultural dollar.
The illegal dollar reached a new record of $421while the MEP dollar is trading at $411 and the CCL at $425. Economists often focus on the last two exchange rates as indicators.
According to the F2 Soluciones Financieras analyst, Andres Reschiniinflation is more linked to financial dollars such as the MEP and the CCL, although the illegal has a greater impact on the prospects.
During the first quarter of 2023, there has been a significant increase andn the inflation raten, which has increased the market volatility. The issuance of a larger amount of money, largely due to the soybean dollar in its third version, it ended up aggravating this situation.
Blue dollar today: minute by minute of the price of this Tuesday, April 18, 2023
This once again caused a delay in the exchange ratewhich aroused concern among economic agents seeking adjust your strategies to cope with market volatility.
Technopols and their contribution to volatility
According to the economist Pablo Tiganithe rise in the dollar is due to the proposals of the pre-candidates for president, such as Javier Milei, Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
Tigani explained that Bullrich implied that there would be no investments and we would have to get ahead with our own savings“what sounds like playpen”. For her part, Milei proposes alternatives such as closing the Central Bank, which would cause a run on deposits, and that of carrying out a bonex plana long-term bond swap that would lose value quickly to people with deposits.
“Rodríguez Larreta, for his part, believes that the market can be freed and that it puts the value of the dollarr, but this can be very dangerous because the value of the dollar may not have a ceiling and the salary of the workers would be pulverized”, Tigani pointed out in statements to PROFILE.
Maximilian Ramirezformer Undersecretary of Economic Programming, agrees with Tigani and believes that the rise in the dollar is also due to the speculative tone of companies and of the people who seek to cover themselves from any political proposal such as becoming a dollar or a discreet jump in the exchange rate.
green haven
On the options that the Government of the Front of All To put a stop to the soaring exchange rate, Pablo Tigani considered that “this government is patchwork and, if what it continues to do is put patches, regulations and more controls, the parallel is going to be a way out for people who can’t get dollars so it also leaves an open ending.”
The blue dollar took a big leap again and closed at 421 pesos
“In all cases, what causes the dollar to soar is a drop in consumption, investment, and any unification with a high dollar triggers the debt, because it was contracted in dollars, and the GDP debt ratio can become unsustainable. According to IMF criteria, any country with more than 70% debt over GDP begins to be unsustainableTigani concluded.
The effect of the CPI that pushes the parallel
“The dollar soaring could be divided into parts. First we see a big jump in nominality with inflation data for March of 7.7%. Afterwards, it must be taken into account that the crawling carried out by the BCRA in the first part of April it is also located at 7%. This added to the last RIPTE data that was above 7%, we already have some factors What justifies the rise in exchange rates?Ramirez commented.
“What can be seen in the latest economic data is that nominality went from 6% at the end of February to 7% in March, so relative prices were distorted in particular that of the parallel dollars”, added the former Undersecretary of Economic Programming.
Exchange rates are accommodating
“There is an upward trend in the exchange rates that are being accommodated by the new levels of nominalityRamirez said.
How much did the blue dollar close today, Tuesday, April 18, 2023
“Then there is the part of the soybean dollar and that of regional dollars where it is being seen that the liquidation comes very, very below what was expected. This is due to an accommodation effect of relative prices and an offer of dollars that does not finish enteringwhich generates some noise”, concluded the expert consulted by PROFILE.
tips on the run
For the economist Salvador Di Stefano, “we give the death certificate to investment in pesos, inflation is higher than interest rates, the wholesale dollar is behind, and the implicit rate of the futures market is at 126, 0% per year”.
“It is time to buy things, owe pesos and dollarize portfolios,” he says in a report.
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