Pre-opening
CAC 40: access to caution before central banks
published on 12/12/2022
(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open slightly down on Monday morning, a large part of investors seeming to want to stay back from the stock market at the start of a busy week on the central bank front. Around 8:15 a.m., the Futures contract on the CAC 40 index – December delivery – fell 34 points to 6645 points, heralding a cautious start to the day, following on from the decline signed last week (-1.2%).
The coming week promises to be the final, busy streak in 2022, which will have seen the major central banks switch to monetary tightening for good, with obviously unfavorable effects on the equity markets. Despite its powerful fall rebound, the Parisian market is still down by around 6.6% since the start of the year. before in the rise of their interest rate.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, whose monetary decisions will fall on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, seem doomed to maintain a restrictive posture for their last meeting of the year. pace of rate hikes, but the strength of the latest economic indicators has called into question the opportunity for a ‘pause’. Inflation in the euro zone set new records in October.
While a slower rate-tightening pace is a possibility after the meeting scheduled for this week, several members of the Governing Council are still arguing for vigorous rate hikes of 75 basis points. the Federal Reserve and the ECB to discuss the main lines of their policy for 2023 (calendar, rhythm, criteria) which will interest the markets. Investors will also remain attentive to the burst of indicators expected in the coming days, particularly in the United States o the latest inflation figures will be released tomorrow.
In Europe, investors will follow the latest PMI surveys at the end of the week, which will reveal whether companies on the Old Continent continue to benefit from the decline in energy prices and the easing of supply tensions. macroeconomic data remains firmly tilted towards recession, the recent easing of anti-Covid measures in China could perhaps bring them a small ray of hope.As PIMCO teams recently recalled, a significant recovery in economic activity China in 2023 would help improve the global growth picture.
The investment manager specializing in fixed income, however, recalls that caution must remain in order given that the path to the reopening of the Chinese economy is “far from clear”. (c) 2022 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.