The 2027 Horizon for Commercial Seafloor Extraction
Commercial deep-sea mining in the Pacific Ocean could begin as early as 2027 without policy guardrails. An increasing rivalry between the United States and China over critical minerals is driving the timeline, according to a recent analysis by the Lowy Institute.
Geopolitical Rivalry and the Pacific Island Dilemma
The ocean floor holds vast quantities of prized resources. The need for power grids, weapons systems, and batteries is fueling the rivalry between the planet’s two largest economic superpowers. As the world’s two biggest economies vie for critical mineral supremacy, Pacific Island nations find themselves caught directly in the middle of a high-stakes geopolitical contest.
Pacific nations are split on the issue. The prospect of economic spoils offers an enticing financial proposition, but they also face the risk of irreversible damage to the ecosystem, fisheries, food security, livelihoods, and culture. Connor Graham of the Lowy Institute noted that the economic proposition is difficult for Pacific Island nations to refuse, yet the structural imbalance in negotiations remains stark.
Asymmetric Power Struggles and Stalled Frameworks
For the Pacific Island nations caught in the middle of this great power battle for critical mineral supremacy, the economic proposition is difficult to refuse. The problem is not that Pacific nations disagree, it is that they are being forced to negotiate individually against parties with vastly more resources, information, and legal capacity, and that the international framework designed to protect them has stalled.
Because there is no international governance framework for commercial deep-sea mining, Pacific states are left to negotiate in the absence of globally agreed-upon protections. Instead, these states are dependent on individual agreements drafted by companies seeking to mine their ocean floor.
Australia’s Diplomatic Standing and Strategic Reserves
Australia is yet to take a clear position on deep-sea mining in the Pacific, but it has the standing, relationships, and institutional presence to make an impact. Australia maintains ties through its membership in the Pacific Islands Forum and as a long-standing ally of the US.
A commitment to standards that have not been written as a condition for activity that is about to begin is less of a policy, and more of an abstention. But Australia cannot afford to abstain from this debate.
At the same time, nations such as Australia have begun forging agreements regarding critical minerals, which serve as essential components for numerous up-and-coming technologies. To guarantee the availability of essential materials necessary for Australia’s national security and economic stability, the federal government has revealed a $1.2 billion critical minerals strategic reserve.
