2023-10-16 16:39:34
The first sounds of the Green Deal’s funeral procession have already sounded. Europe’s ecological transformation seems to be forced to choose between economic growth and sustainability. Enthusiasm for the ecological transition is starting to wane more and more in the European Union. After the fanfare in Brussels, which spoke of an emission-free Europe, the first sounds of the funeral procession can already be heard clearly in the distance. Achieving a zero-emission economy is not only a technological challenge, but also an economic and social one. The so-called sustainable economy is actually a dead end, which now presents EU leaders with a crossroads: either economic growth or sustainability. The Green Deal and reality The European Green Deal aims to link economic growth and environmental sustainability. According to the official wording, “its goal is to 1) have no net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; 2) economic growth independent of resource consumption; 3) no person and no place should be left out”. But is this really the case? Will the green economy succeed in delinking GDP growth from resource consumption? Even among experts and scientists, there seems to be a lot of skepticism about its actual implementation. For Ursula von der Leyen’s dream to come true, decoupling must be real: that is, the economy must grow while output falls. According to the proponents of the green economy, this is possible in the long term, the famous long term, which we probably don’t deserve anymore. Among the experts, however, there are those who believe that unbundling will not bring growth and there are also those who believe that instead it will result in a pronounced economic decline, i.e. a decrease in EU GDP is a necessary condition for a decrease in output. What do the studies say? A recent study by Jefim Vogel (University of Leeds) and Jason Hickel (London School of Economics) shows that current rates of recession in high-income countries fall well short of what would be needed to keep global warming well below 2°C to be held as required by the Paris Agreement. In a survey of experts conducted for the journal Nature Sustainability (King, LC, Savin, I. & Drews, S. Shades of green growth skepticism among climate policy researchers), 73% of respondents believe that sustainability does not bring economic growth. Only 27% of researchers believe that economic growth and sustainability are compatible. So by going green at all costs (where the costs are borne by the citizens) we are committing economic suicide. Dependence on China is increasing There are many real factors standing in the way of the transition, and many of the consequences that come with it. For example, the extraordinary need for raw materials associated with the technological leap required for zero-emission energy production has technical and geopolitical consequences that have been ignored or even neglected by enthusiastic supporters of the green transition. The most obvious consequence of the new energy supply chains is a dramatic dependence on China for most of the necessary materials and components. If dependence on Russia for gas supply was not a good idea, it is not really clear why it would be for materials related to the green economy. The mineral intensity of the green transition is driving the entire European Union into Beijing’s arms. Just to mention the latest information, China recently set its production quota for rare earth metals (a key component of the ecological transition, of which China has a near monopoly) for 2023 at 240,000 tons. This represents an increase of 14% compared to 2022, but is much lower than the increase in 2022 compared to the previous year (+25%). China rations its production efforts according to its needs and maneuvers the world market as it sees fit. Western ecological transitions depend on Beijing’s “goodwill”. In addition, world primary production of aluminum (another metal indispensable to the West) reached an all-time high of 71.2 million tons last August. This is because China has significantly increased production to meet domestic demand, while data suggested a decline. A simultaneous increase in production in the rest of the world depressed prices. In any case, the Beijing government has set an upper limit for monthly production (45 million tons per year). It is not yet known whether the ceiling will be raised. However, this affects prices. Even the heads of state and government were unsure of Emmanuel Macron, even though he was the first to support the green transformation, on May 11 he went on the attack and demanded a “regulatory break”. Later, another liberal, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, suggested that they “press the pause button” on biodiversity issues. On the right are the European heads of state and government – Nikos Hristodulidis (Cyprus), Krisjanis Karins (Latvia), Ulf Kristersson (Sweden), Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Greece), Karl Nehammer (Austria), Petteri Orpo (Finland), Andrej Plenkovic (Croatia). and Leo Varadkar (Ireland) – followed suit: on June 29, they all supported the statement of the European People’s Party (EPP), in which they called for a “regulatory pause” in the Green Pact and asked to “take into account the Russian threat to Ukraine in February 2022 new economic and social realities following an attack”. Leaders also fear that they will face continued civil unrest. The heads of state are thinking of the farmers’ revolt movements in the Netherlands, which followed the 2022 plan to reduce nitrogen emissions and the appearance of a new anti-Green Deal party, the Farmers-Citizens Movement, in the regional elections in March, which upset the local political palette. They are also worried about the rise of the AfD, the far-right German party that has made the fight against the ban on gas and oil boilers its battle horse. Rising interest rates, recurring inflation and slowing economic activity: the new economic environment is less favorable to the implementation of the Green Deal, which affects the everyday life of citizens and businesses and requires serious investments. All the more so, since most of the regulations being prepared affect agricultural producers. At a time of rising food prices, the topic is extremely sensitive. But that’s not all. The 27 member states are worried about the competitiveness of the European economy at a time when China and the United States are massively subsidizing green industries and rising borrowing costs are hurting the profitability of many projects. Finally, the hastily adopted Green Deal legislation makes life difficult for companies. “All these texts were prepared without impact studies”, complains a European diplomat. In light of this, the situation in Brussels has changed, especially since the emblematic commissioner of the Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, left his post to head a social democratic and green list in the Dutch November 22 parliamentary elections. Tension in the air Tensions at the European level are present in many countries. Even in countries led by social democrats – which are the most active in this field. In Germany, Olaf Scholz, who campaigned for climate protection in 2021, finds it increasingly difficult to reconcile his voluntarism with his government’s policies. In Spain, the government of socialist Pedro Sanchez is facing revolts in several cities that have shifted to the right after municipal elections on May 28. They now reject the low-emission zones to be introduced in 2024. In Majadahonda, an elegant suburb of Madrid, the city council voted against the measure, criticizing the “Western climate religion”. Although in order to achieve the goals set by the Europeans – “by 2030 we must move twice as fast” in reducing greenhouse gas emissions as in recent years – the French president rejects, for example, limiting the speed of highways to 110 km/h or gas boilers prohibition. In Stockholm, the far-right coalition eased the hydrocarbon tax and restrictions on the proportion of biofuels in petrol and diesel. As a result, Sweden’s CO2 emissions will increase for the second year in a row, for the first time in 20 years, and the country will not be able to meet its EU commitments. Outside the EU, even the United Kingdom, which has emerged as a European pioneer on climate change, has withdrawn some emblematic measures. On September 20, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that he would delay the transition of new cars to electricity and the ban on gas and oil boilers by several years, jeopardizing the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
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