China recorded its fastest drop in carbon dioxide emissions since the COVID-19 pandemic during the third quarter, driven directly by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following military escalations involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
According to an analysis published by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Carbon Brief, the nation’s CO2 emissions fell by 3.1 percent year-on-year between July and September. This contraction in industrial greenhouse gases coincides with a 4 percent decline in global oil consumption, alongside a steeper 9 percent drop in transport fuel demand.
Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at CREA, noted that Chinese oil consumption had likely already peaked prior to this external supply shock.
“It is clear that there will be a form of rebound in oil consumption once that, or if, prices go down,” Myllyvirta told AFP. “This intervenes in a context where China’s oil consumption had very probably already reached a peak before the shock.”
Myllyvirta added that the geopolitical disruption has visibly accelerated the state’s ongoing transition toward electrification and away from petroleum dependency.
Domestic coal consumption also contracted by 3 percent year-on-year, despite ongoing domestic construction of new coal-fired power facilities across the country. Gao Yuhe, a Beijing-based project manager for Greenpeace East Asia, emphasized that sustaining this downward trend in coal-fired electricity generation remains critical for the long-term expansion of green energy infrastructure.
“Parallel to this, we must see an increased adoption of renewable energies as well as rollouts of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems,” Gao stated.
| Indicator (Q3 YoY) | Recorded Change | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| CO2 Emissions | -3.1% | Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions |
| Global Oil Consumption | -4 % | Middle East conflict impact |
| Transport Fuel Demand | -9 % | Petroleum import bottlenecks |
| Coal Consumption | -3 % | Accelerating clean energy transition |
China remains the planet’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for over 30 percent of global totals. Beijing has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, supported by aggressive deployment of solar installations—such as thermodynamic solar plants utilizing molten salt storage in regions like Fukang—and massive wind power additions.
