China generated less than 50% of its electricity from coal during the six months ending in June, marking the first time the world’s largest coal consumer has reached this milestone, officials announced. According to Xing Yiteng, deputy director general of the energy administration’s development and planning office, coal’s share of the power mix fell to 49.7%.
This represents a significant decline from 2016, when previous National Energy Administration (NEA) figures showed coal accounted for 65.5% of the power mix. Simultaneously, the share of renewable energy grew to 41.2%, surpassing the 40% threshold for the first time. Within that renewable share, wind and solar accounted for 24.6%, a substantial increase from the 9.7% share recorded in 2020, according to Reuters.
Expansion of Renewables and Future Targets
China’s energy strategy includes a goal to increase the share of wind and solar in its power mix to 30% by 2030. Gao Yuhe, a project manager at Greenpeace East Asia, suggested this target could be achieved as early as 2028, aided by the deployment of rooftop solar combined with battery storage. Gao noted that flexible electricity markets, demand response, and storage would allow for higher penetration of distributed solar to meet rising demand.
Further investments are outlined in a five-year plan, which aims for 3,500 gigawatts of renewables capacity. This rollout involves onshore and offshore wind and solar resources, nuclear energy construction, energy storage systems, and smart grids. These efforts, which include doubling charging infrastructure to 40 million stations, are projected to cost approximately $2.94 trillion and raise total annual energy production capacity from 5.13 billion tons in 2026 to 5.8 billion tons by 2030, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Continued Coal Infrastructure Growth
Despite the shrinking share of generation, China continues to expand its coal capacity. In the first half of 2026, China commissioned 30 GW of new coal power—a 43% increase over the previous year—while retiring only 2.7 GW. This means 10 GW of new capacity entered operation for every 1 GW retired. An additional 25.4 GW began construction during the same period, according to Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Research from CREA and Global Energy Monitor indicates that China began building 94.5 GW of new coal-fired capacity in 2024, the highest annual level since 2015. This represented 93% of all coal-fired power plant construction starts worldwide that year.
Systemic Challenges and Oversupply
The rapid addition of both coal and renewable capacity has led to worsening oversupply. In the first half of 2026, estimated wind and solar curtailment reached 360 TWh, a 49% year-on-year increase. CREA stated that if this electricity had been absorbed, it could have met all demand growth and allowed coal power generation to fall further.
Integration is further complicated by long-term contracts. In 2026, coal generators are still expected to sign annual contracts covering 60% to 70% of the previous year’s delivered electricity. CREA argues these minimum requirements act as a barrier to renewable integration and recommends phasing them out in provinces experiencing oversupply to transition coal from a baseload generator to a flexible backup role.
