It is unheard of for six decades: China, the most populous country in the world with 1.4 billion inhabitants, or one sixth of the inhabitants of the planet, saw its population drop in 2022.
In 2021, the number of births was 9.56 million in mainland China, announced Tuesday, January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At the same time, 10.41 million deaths have been recorded. The combination of the two phenomena produced a population decline of 850,000 people.
This fall promises to be lasting, perhaps until the end of the century, according to demographers, which will severely affect the economy and the pension system. India should dethrone China this year as the country with the most inhabitants, had already announced the United Nations (UN).
A paradoxical drop
This is a first since 1960-1961, when a famine, which began in 1959, caused tens of millions of deaths following the errors of the economic policy of the Great Leap Forward. Then the population had grown rapidly, doubling since the 1960s, to exceed 1.4 billion today.
Paradoxically, this decline occurs despite the relaxation of the birth control policy in recent years. Ten years ago, the Chinese were only allowed to have one child. Since 2021, they can have three.
This fall can be explained by the increase in the cost of living in China, just like that of the education of a child. The higher level of education of women pushes them to postpone the arrival of a child.
“There is also the habit now of having small families, due to the one-child policy in force for decades”, Xiujian Peng, a researcher specializing in Chinese demography at the University of Victoria (Australia), told Agence France-Presse (AFP). The desire to have a child is also less strong among the younger generations.
Independent demographer He Yafu also notes with AFP “the decline in the number of women of childbearing age, which fell by 5 million per year between 2016 and 2021”.
A crashing fertility rate
In 2019, the United Nations (UN) still believed that China would not reach its peak population until 2031-2032. But since then the fertility rate has collapsed to 1.15 children per woman in 2021, far from the generation renewal threshold (2.1). In France, it was 1.8 in 2020.
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“The decline and aging of the population (…) will have a profound impact on the Chinese economy, from today to 2100”prévient Xiujian Peng. “The decline in the active population is synonymous with higher labor costs” and that “will affect China’s competitiveness in the global market”she insists.
According to the projections of his team, without reform of the pension system, the payment of pensions could represent 20% of GDP in 2100 – against 4% in 2020. “The pressure on assets to provide care for the elderly will be increasing”He Yafu warned.
Many local authorities have launched measures to encourage couples to procreate. The metropolis of Shenzhen (South) has been offering a birth bonus and allowances paid until the child is 3 years old. A couple welcoming their first baby will receive 3,000 yuan (410 euros); 10,000 yuan (1,370 euros) for the third. In total, a family with three children will receive 37,500 yuan (5,150 euros) in bonuses and allowances.
The province of Shandong, in the east of the country, offers 158 days of maternity leave (60 more than the national standard), from the first child. The metropolis of Changsha (Center), which limits housing purchases to curb speculation, allows couples with two or three children to buy an additional apartment.
“Recreating a true culture of the birth rate”
But nothing says that these measures will be sufficient to revive the birth rate. “Above all, we should [que le gouvernement] clearly affirms that there is no longer any limit to births, in order to recreate a true culture of the birth rate”says He Yafu. “A comprehensive set of measures covering childbirth, parenthood and upbringing is needed to reduce the cost of raising a child”estime, de son côté, Xiujian Peng.
The Chinese population could decline each year by 1.1% on average, according to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, the data of which was transmitted to AFP. China could have only 587 million inhabitants in 2100, less than half of today, according to the most pessimistic projections of these demographers.