July 21, 2022
image source,EPA
CIA Director Burns believes that Xi Jinping, the top leader of the Chinese Communist Party, will not attack Taiwan immediately “after the 20th National Congress”.
US CIA Director William Burns (William Burns) on Wednesday (July 20) at a US security forum to predict the risk of China’s attack on Taiwan.
Burns told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that he did not think China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, would attack Taiwan immediately “after the 20th National Congress.”
For Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership, the question, he said, is not whether they will use force to seize Taiwan, but when and how.
He believes that the risk of a Chinese attack on Taiwan will grow over time over the next decade.
Burns also explained the reason for this pre-judgment: China should learn a lesson from the Russian-Ukrainian war, that is, if it wants to fight quickly, it must have the strength to crush the opponent. In view of this, Burns believes that Xi Jinping will not use force against Taiwan immediately after the 20th National Congress.
He summarizes the lessons China has learned from the Russian-Ukrainian war including:
- Must accumulate the strength to crush the opponent
- information must be controlled
- The economy must be resilient to external sanctions
- Disunity between the U.S. and its Asia-Pacific allies must be eliminated
Some analysts believe that Burns’ remarks seem to reveal that US intelligence authorities are still optimistic about China’s economic development in the next decade.
When asked about the Taiwan issue, Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the United States who participated in the forum, said: “The last thing China wants to do is fight with its compatriots. We will achieve peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity, because we believe that this is the most suitable for both sides of the strait. the interests of the people.”
He also criticized the US for undermining the “one China principle” and the three US-China joint communiqués, leading to tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
When asked if China and the United States have entered a “new Cold War”, Qin Gang said that the Cold War is a tragedy in world history, synonymous with estrangement, division, confrontation and conflict. “People are worried that the history of the Cold War will repeat itself because some people hold the Cold War mentality and mistakenly regard China as the former Soviet Union and China as a threat. But China is not the former Soviet Union, and the CCP is not the CPSU.”
What other important issues did the CIA director talk about?
image source,Archyde.com
Xi Jinping and Biden also had a video call in March this year
At this forum, Burns also expressed his views on China’s position in the Russian-Ukrainian war. He said that while China has bought more energy from Russia, it has handled arms supplies to Russia cautiously to avoid sanctions on the military.
He believes that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders uneasy to a certain extent, and Xi Jinping should also be uneasy about the war’s impact on global economic stability, because in 2022, Xi Jinping’s biggest goal is to make the “Twenty Congress” of the Communist Party go smoothly. .
Burns said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine also made China’s leaders nervous because China had hoped to woo some European countries to join forces against the United States.
Burns also revealed that according to U.S. intelligence estimates, Russia’s death toll in Ukraine has reached about 15,000 since its invasion of Ukraine in February, and an additional 45,000 may have been wounded. The Ukrainian side also suffered heavy casualties.
Regarding President Biden’s revelation that he will have another call with Xi Jinping in the next few days, Burns believes that it is a good thing. “Even in countries that are hostile to each other, dialogue is always a good thing.”
“Years of experience have taught me that even in the most complex and dangerous competitions, it is very important for adversaries to talk to each other in order to reduce the risk of unintended conflict, or at least the escalation of the most dangerous situations,” he said.
Burns also said the U.S. had no intelligence to suggest any problems with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s physical or mental health.
Recently, there has been a growing number of unsubstantiated speculations in the media that Putin, who will turn 70 this year, may be suffering from health problems or even cancer.
Burns said there was no evidence to prove it, and joked that Putin looked “too healthy”.
The 12-year-old Aspen Security Forum is an annual conference held in Aspen, Colorado, USA, that provides world leaders with a nonpartisan public venue to discuss today’s most important national security and foreign policy issues.