Published on :
Cocoa prices have increased since last year, and consumption too, since the summer of 2021, but that does not mean that producers are earning more just yet.
+ 12% in euros, and + 6% in dollars. This is the average increase on the London and New York Stock Exchange in the price of a tonne of beans over the past year, from January 2021 to January 2022. A rise in futures market contracts, that is to say for a delivery later in the year, influenced for several weeks by the prospects of a smaller harvest in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s leading producer.
These prospects are fueled by a slowdown in the arrival of beans in the Ivorian ports and by a staggering drop in purchases of beans in Ghana on 6 January (263,000 t against 570,000 t recorded last year at the same date).
Prices suspended for the next Ivorian and Ghanaian harvests
In the coming weeks, the new forecasts of the pod counters in the plantations and the balance sheet of the cumulative arrival figures in the various bean export ports on the continent (San Pedro, Abidjan, Tema, Douala) since October 1 will confirm or not the hypothesis of a declining harvest. A drop which would inevitably have the beneficial effect of continuing to slowly raise prices, which producers have considered too low for several years.
The other driver of this rise in prices is the recovery in consumption. The figures announced for bean grindings in Europe last week show a volume of bean grindings higher than the two good years 2018 and 2019. In preparation for the holiday season and Easter, manufacturers processed more cocoa in third trimester and fourth. The same is true in the United States, where the Association of American Confectioners announces a strong recovery in consumption.
But these grindings play on the margin on prices. These are generally beans that have been purchased for a long time and come from old contracts signed by manufacturers. Only the increase in grindings over time in the coming months could have a significant impact insofar as it would go hand in hand with new purchases of beans.
Will producers benefit from this increase?
The gradual rise in prices in recent months should not, however, benefit plantation workers for the time being: in Côte d’Ivoire, purchase prices from the farm gate price are set per semester, and in Ghana l another cocoa giant, all year round.
There is therefore little hope of seeing a revaluation during the harvest. Especially since in Ghana, the relative “generosity” of the authorities last September leaves little room for a further increase.