2023-10-28 06:49:41
AWhen the papillotes wrapped in their golden paper are already making their entrance on the tips of their jagged toes to the most hasty merchants, the customer is tempted. Should he die two months before the festivities? Think ahead by buying now? Getting a head start on the Advent calendar? The only certainty is that the prices of chocolate confectionery will be closely watched and promotions sought after in these times of unbridled inflation.
At the time of wishes for 2024, some could also form the still vague hope of a decline in prices. The government wants to exert pressure, encouraging manufacturers and distributors to anticipate price negotiations for food products and complete them in January. A calendar advancement in the form of a damp squib? Or should we believe in Santa Claus?
Nothing predicts that the discussions will lead to a decline in prices. At least not for chocolate. And for good reason. With cocoa, speculators have drawn the bean. The brown powder caught fire in the markets. At the end of October, it was trading at nearly 3,800 dollars (3,600 euros) per tonne in New York, a forty-four year high. In fact, we have to go back to 1979 to find such a level of quotation. Cocoa takes down the coconut tree.
Supply deficit fears
To explain this surge, we must look to Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two pivotal cocoa countries, which together supply nearly 60% of world volumes. However, in African plantations, the big harvest began on 1is october. The orange pods clinging to the trunk of the cocoa trees are cut, then sliced to deliver the precious beans. Without waiting, the markets are trying to weigh them.
“Even if cocoa trees continue to produce pods and it is therefore difficult to make forecasts, production in Ivory Coast could be less than two million tonnes », Estimates Pierre Ricau, analyst for the consulting company N’Kalô Service. He mentions the high cost of fertilizers and pesticides, which forced planters to reduce doses. The markets also scrutinized the rainy weather conducive to the spread of fungal diseases. Mr. Ricau also addresses a more structural subject. « Most of the growth of cocoa farming in Côte d’Ivoire is linked to its development in protected natural areas. Nearly half of the production comes from it. A peak has been reached. »
In this context of scorching prices, against a backdrop of fears of a supply deficit, Ivorian planters had high expectations from the setting of prices for the new season. Hopes dashed. The price paid per kilo of farm-gate beans increased from 900 to 1,000 CFA francs (from 1.37 to 1.52 euros). An increase of 11%, certainly, but without comparison with the 40% increase in the price of cocoa. The planters are always chocolate. Gourmands will have to pay more, after the New Year, to treat themselves to chocolate bars and candies. Or perhaps ration yourself, thinking: “A crunched square of chocolate is like a crunching tree. »
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