2023-06-18 14:25:28
Exactly one year ago I wrote in a newspaper about the irresponsible statements of representatives of the opposition about what they called and still call “the debt bomb”. I pointed out that with these post-truths they did nothing more than try to generate anxiety, trying to “avoid a recovery of the real economy that ends up generating an electoral climate that could favor the government for 2023.” At present they continue with the same statements. They do not distinguish debt in pesos from debt in dollarswhich is logical, since during the management of change debt in dollars increased significantly.
It is worth analyzing, then, what happened in all this time, focusing on the question of public debt from a structural perspective or medium term.
A first fact to take into account is that when Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner ended his term in 2015 total public debt (in dollars and in pesos) represented the 53 percent of GDPa figure that reached 90 percent in 2019, at the end of the Macri government. At the same time, the current management reduced the debt to 85 percent of GDP as of December 2022that is, nothing that indicates an explosive evolution.
Second, the proportion of dollar debt during this government it reached 66.9 percent as of December last year, below the inherited figure in 2019 (77.8 percent), while Cristina Fernández had completed her presidency with a proportion close to the current one.
A third fact is that the debt in dollars that the government of Macriboth with private external creditors and with the IMF in 2018, mortgaged the country for a long time. This was a real bomb that was left for the country, and it had to be deactivated, with highly concentrated payments in 2022 and 2023. This fragile situation was faced with the negotiation and exchange of government securities in foreign currency with private creditors in August 2020generating financial relief in payments for the period 2020-2024 of 42,000 million dollars, and a significant reduction in the interest rate to be paid.
Con the IMF an extension of terms of ten years was achieved (including four and a half grace periods), which is why payments begin in net terms in 2026. I have always maintained: there are no good agreements with the IMF, but in this case valuable time could be savedand it will be necessary to continue negotiating to limit conditionalities to a minimum and eliminate surcharges.
Fourth, in the case of the component in pesos of public debt, the national government strengthened the domestic market in pesos. Debt placements in national currency exceeded maturities in 2020 by 19.2 percent, in 2021 by 21.5 percent, and in 2022 by 44.0 percent. This policy continues in the current year, with placements in the first five months of the year that are 32 percent higher than maturities. In the last tender of this week, it was possible to place twice the amount that expired, and with a participation of the private sector of 86 percent in the amount awarded.
In the successive tenders and exchanges, an effort was made to extend the term of the titles, to extend the maturity profile to 2024-2025. In the exchange operation last March, with an adhesion percentage of 64 percent of the eligible titles, maturities from March to June for 4.3 million pesos were cleared. In turn, with the last conversion in June, financial relief of approximately 7.4 trillion pesos was achieved for the next four months, with a 78 percent adherence, which included the private and public sectors.
What was expressed in the previous paragraphs, which shows proper debt managementevidence that, with the support of the mainstream media, there was and continues to be a deliberate campaign by the main opposition force to create anxiety and uncertaintywhich in turn ends up having a negative impact on different variables of the economy, especially prices.
In this context, the Government has had to deactivate the most complex circuits of the explosive left behind by the Macri administration, something that must be explained. This has been achieved even in a context of unprecedented events, as was the case at the time. the covid-19 pandemicand now they are the Russia-Ukraine war and the drought.
A lot has been done, perhaps not everything that could be done, surely less than what is needed, but it is clear that there is still a lot to be done and for this reason it is necessary to continue accumulating the support of the citizens that is needed to strengthen the axes of the current model. , face to the next elections.
* National Deputy for the Front of All. President of the Solidarity Party.
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