Concerns in Ukraine and strong demand: oil has recovered

Brent ended up 1.64% at $94.81 and WTI ended up 1.72% at $93.66.

Oil prices resumed their rise on Wednesday with lingering concerns over the Ukrainian crisis and strong demand for black gold, as shown by the state of US commercial crude reserves.

The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in April gained 1.64% to 94.81 dollars.

In New York, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery rose 1.72% to 93.66 dollars.

For Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote, the crisis in Ukraine has added “additional pressure to an already bullish context, but it only explains part of the gains”, continues the analyst.

“The fundamentals underlying recent oil price gains remain in place, with insufficient supply in the face of growing global demand,” said Ricardo Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades.

On Tuesday, prices had fallen more than 4%, the largest daily decline since the end of November 2021, pushed by signs of de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis.

But despite Moscow’s announcement of a partial troop withdrawal at the border, Westerners say Russia is still concentrating as many forces around Ukraine and the information still needs to be verified.

“The market is skeptical of what the Russians are saying,” summed up Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates, which once again supported prices.

The state of US crude stocks came out mixed, showing an unexpected increase in reserves but also a fall in stocks of gasoline and distillate products, which reflects still strong US demand.

During the week ended Feb. 11, crude inventories swelled by 1.1 million barrels, contrary to analysts’ expectations, according to figures released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA).

Those of gasoline, however, fell by 1.3 million barrels when analysts expected an increase of half a million.

As for distilled products (heating oil, diesel), their reserves fell by 1.6 million barrels, more than expected by the market.

“The increase in crude inventories reflects the power outages that affected refineries in Texas last weekend,” said Andy Lipow.

As these refineries were unable to process the usual volume of crude, inventories swelled while those of finished products fell, due to demand, explained the analyst.

After the close, however, oil prices fell again due to positive signs in the negotiations with Iran.

According to Edward Moya, analyst for Oanda, crude prices have retracted “after the Iranian nuclear negotiator tweeted that the protagonists were closer than ever to an agreement”.

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