The next decisions that will be taken in connection with the possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could have repercussions throughout the world.
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“Everyone’s eyes are on Russia and NATO right now and on the alert,” says political scientist and lecturer at the University of Montreal Loïc Tassé.
International tension has escalated since US intelligence learned that Vladimir Putin could issue orders to invade Ukraine “at any time” on Friday.
Despite the approximately 100,000 heavily armed Russian soldiers massed on the Ukrainian border and the threat of a “rapid assault” on the capital, the diplomatic channel is still the one put forward by NATO.
If the invasion were to occur, it is therefore above all a guerrilla warfare within the country that would be observed. The risks of a Third World War are low, according to Mr. Tassé.
Imitate Russia
By taking this path, the United States and its allies have “significantly reduced the potential for escalation of this conflict”, says the political scientist.
But this lack of desire for retaliation in the event of an attack, in addition to “draconian economic sanctions”, could well give ideas to other nations.
Mr. Tassé wonders: could this “weak” reaction from the United States incite Iran to eat away at some neighboring territories or push China to attack Taiwan?
“It gives the impression that we hesitate to intervene and it is this prospect that worries me. This conflict could have children. It could be a blow to democracy,” he said.