2023-08-14 04:14:00
The final number of both the Deputies and the Senate will only be known with the count of the general elections on October 22, but they allow us to begin to glimpse what would happen if the same figures were maintained as in the primaries at the national level.
The first piece of information has to do with the confirmation that, as had been happening, no force will have its own quorum in the lower house (129 seats), and it will even be even further away than the Frente de Todos is now with a bloc total of 118 legislators in Deputies and with 31 members in the Senate (where 37 are required). Added to this is the reduction of the two majority blocs that were already in the calculations of both Unión por la Patria and Juntos por el Cambio. What was not in the preliminary readings was the possible exponential growth of Libertad Avanza that would position it as a central actor in any parliamentary negotiation. Until now, this role had been occupied by the Federal Interbloc and the group of provincial parties, with close to a dozen deputies, but LLA would be located in that “middle avenue”, not precisely because of its ideological spectrum but because of its numerical positioning among the two majority forces.
In Deputies, Libertad Avanza is made up of two of its own legislators (Milei and Victoria Villarroel) added to Carolina Píparo who is also part of the space with her monobloc. If the results of the primary are repeated in October, the LLA might become a caucus of regarding 40 members, a figure of vital importance for the advancement of any bill.
In the province of Buenos Aires, where 35 seats are up for grabs, Unión por la Patria would add close to 12 legislators, headed by Máximo Kirchner who is renewing his seat, some 11 from Together for Change (with Cristian Ritondo at the helm) and at the minus 8 for La Libertad Avanza, with “Bertie” Benegas Lynch and the journalist Marcela Pagano. Here the left might also aspire to a seat, which was close to 3%.
In the City of Buenos Aires, the alternative led by Maximiliano Guerra of bullrichism prevailed, so it will integrate its competing ballot into the internal one that led Maximiliano Ferraro as head of the list. If the figures are maintained in October, it would put between 6 and 7 national deputies, compared to regarding 3 from Unión por la Patria with Paula Penacca and at least two from La Libertad Avanza, with Diana Mondino at the helm.
In Córdoba, where 9 seats are renewed, LLA ranked first, which would allow it to have between 3 and 4 legislators, followed by Hacemos por Nuestro País, referenced in the outgoing governor Juan Schiaretti with at least two legislators, followed by Together for Change that it would be in a similar number (the internal Luis Picat, from Bullrich, won). Located in fourth place was Unión por la Patria with close to 8%, which would complicate the entry of legislators.
Santa Fe is another of the provinces where 10 places for the lower house are at stake. LLA also prevailed there, with at least 3 seats to count if the results are repeated, followed by Together for Change with a similar number of places in Deputies (the bullrichista José Núñez won in the internal) and Unión por la Patria in third place with close to two national deputies.
Mendoza, the fifth district in number of legislators to be renewed, also won La Libertad Avanza with the possibility of adding two deputies, while Cambia Mendoza with the radical Lisandro Nieri might have the same number of deputies although it was in second place. Unión por la Patria would not reach the floor to have legislators, but the final number should be calculated using the D’Hont system with October numbers.
Senate. With a strong scenario of historical bipolarity, the arrival of Libertad Avanza would force us to reconfigure the strategies of alliances and negotiations that are maintained in the Upper House. It is that with the figures of PASO, Milei’s space might fit eight senators, an unprecedented situation for a new force such as La Libertad Avanza. The surprise occurred in Jujuy, La Rioja and San Luis, where it was ranked first, which would allow it to enter two senators per province, while it might access one more from Formosa and San Juan where it was consolidated in the second place. In the province of Buenos Aires, the result would be reversed in favor of Juntos por el Cambio of 2017 and once once more Peronism would have the two seats with “Wado” De Pedro and Juliana Di Tullio and a place for the opposition, for the list of Maximiliano Abbot who won the internal.
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