Analysts Association Cut the GDP target this year to 3.09% from the previous expected growth of 3.71%. Ready to cut the profit of listed companies to 89.11 baht / share, while the SET for the rest of the year is expected to swing in a frame of 1,567-1,774 points, suggesting diversification of investment portfolios, cheering for BDMS -KBANK and MAKRO are outstanding stocks. The SET views higher oil prices-inflation will still weigh on the stock market in Q2-Q3, while the Russia-Ukraine-Covid issue still pressures while Asia Plus Securities Maintain the index target this year at 1,810 points, believing that institutional money inflows in the second half of the year support the market
Analysts Association cuts GDP-profit targets of companies this year
Mr. Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary General of the Investment Analysts Association Revealed the results of a survey of 27 analysts and fund managers about their investment outlook for the remainder of the year (Q2-4/22) by downgrading the economic projection. or GDP this year has come down to 3.09% growth from the previously expected growth of 3.71%
The pressure factor came from the global political situation. Russian-Ukrainian Impacted the forecast for the full-year average crude oil price 65 higher from the previous estimate of $69.90 per barrel to $94.03 per barrel.
For investment direction in 65, there are still positive factors from foreign investors’ money (Fund Flow) and listed companies’ earnings growth. The negative factor These are the trend of raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), foreign political factors, the global economy and preparations for reducing global QE measures.
while the policy interest rate direction of Thailand Most opinions estimate the MPC will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% this year.
In addition, the projected earnings per share of listed companies in the year 65 has been revised down to an average of 89.11 baht / share, or a growth of 9.33% from a year 64, down from the previous survey at 89.59 baht / share.
Looking at the Q2 index target swinging in the frame of 1,567-1,774 points
As for the SET Index target in Q2/22, the survey results show that most of the Thai stock market is looking sideways, with the SET Index projected at the end of Q2/22 at 1,688 points. Expect the SET to swing within the range of 1,567-1,774 points and close the year at 1,747 points.
investment strategy It is recommended to diversify your investment portfolio in Thai stocks or Thai stock funds 29.46% shares or foreign stock funds 27.29% Cash and short-term deposits 13.85% Fixed income funds 13.15% Property funds or REITs 8.66% Gold or gold funds 7.41% other 0.18%
To increase the weight of investment in the retail, banking, tourism and communications sectors and reduce the weight of investment in the petrochemical business. Energy and Utilities and electronic components, with prominent stocks being BDMS, KBANK and MAKRO.
SET worried about high oil prices, high inflation affecting the economy in Q2-3
Mr. Soraphol Tulyasathien, Deputy Manager, Head of Corporate Strategic Planning The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) said that the factors that will weigh on the Thai stock market in the second quarter of this year include domestic factors. on government measures that will allow the economy to move forward under high rising oil prices and inflation
“This second and third quarter is important because how to keep the economy going in the face of high oil prices? The foreign factor is the interest rate policy of the Fed. Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the COVID situation Mr. Soraphol said
He said that from the beginning of the year to the present Foreign capital flows into the Thai stock market higher than other countries in the region. Foreign investors bought a total net of 131,367 million baht, the factor that foreigners bought net of Thai stocks for 4 consecutive months came from the opening of the country. economic recovery The performance of listed companies (Co.) has improved. While inflation, although rising, is not as strong as other countries. As with any policy rate hike there is a possibility. but not as strong as the US
“Will the inflow of foreign fund flow last long? As of today, many factors are still similar to the beginning of the year. As for the factors that will cause Fund flow to flow out, if as long as nothing goes wrong, such as war, covids, economic recovery I see that the stock market is still an interesting point. except that if the war stops or Europe back China changes policy which is something that must be followed up.”Deputy Manager, Head of Corporate Strategic Planning
Asia Plus maintains SET target this year at 1,810 points, keeping an eye on the influx of institutions in the second half of the year.
Mr. Therdsak Thaveetheerathum, Deputy Director of Research Division Asia Plus Securities Company Limited (ASPS) said it maintained its target of the SET Index this year at 1,810 points, an index with good Market Equity Yield Growth at 4.3%, close to the average of 4%.
The factors supporting the stock market are Funds from institutional investors that will flow into the second half of the year Because at present, it is found that the amount of cash from the institution that is held by the institution is more than usual. It is estimated that the money from institutional investors will focus on investing in the stock market where the profits of listed companies (listed companies) can still grow. And it is a stock market that still has a good dividend yield. The Thai stock market is considered a stock market that is likely to have a chance that institutional money will help support in the second half of this year.
Since this year is the year that the redemption of LTF funds is due in 2016 with a total value of 50-60 billion baht, resulting in higher sales from institutions in the beginning of the year. But now, just 3 months later, the institution has sold net Thai stocks for more than 80 billion baht, more than the total LTF purchased in 2016.
Therefore, ASPS Research Department checks the number of cash holding status at the end of Feb. 65 in mutual funds that have a policy to invest in Thai stocks in a full portfolio of 370 funds with AUM totaling 560 billion baht, found that there are equivalents Cash worth more than 32 billion baht, accounting for 5.52% of all investments. Considered to be at a high level compared to normal conditions that hold about 2-3% of cash and see continued net sales in March 65 (mtd) another 18 billion baht, indicating that the fund currently holds cash in a higher proportion And if considering more on a per fund basis, it was found that 21 out of 370 funds held more than 20% of the cash holdings.
In summary, the fund’s cash holding status is higher than usual. Shows a response to concerns from various negative factors. to a certain extent Therefore, it is believed that selling pressure from funds that used to put pressure on the market in the future should be lighter. and if the market shrinks or there are positive factors to support It is likely that buying power will come back to support the market again. At the same time, foreigners still have the opportunity to buy Thai stocks continuously. with the advantages of the Thai stock market in many aspects
The survey found that the majority of institutions held cash back to 30% from 20% as most institutional investors were still unsure of the situation and uncertainty from various factors, including: The trend of the economy has a chance to return to slowdown. causing the cash to be held in order to see the direction to be clear and is in the process of finding a time to invest again
In addition, foreign investors’ investment is also an important support. In 65, the Thai stock market is one of the markets that foreign investors are interested in. reflected in the first 3 months of the year Foreigners bought the highest net buy of Thai stocks in the region at more than $3.1 billion or 110 billion baht. Although foreigners bought a large net of Thai stocks, the SET Index has not risen much. The pressure on the SET is the net selling pressure from the fund. 8 billion baht (ytd)
However, if assessing only the 2Q22, the Thai stock market still has a chance to swing up. But the rally will not see a sharp rise. It is an upward swing that slows down. And along the way, there may be some pressure to cause the index to fall. At present, there are still factors that put pressure on the stock market in terms of the inverted yield curve, which is a reflection of the economic slowdown.
Recommend 3 outstanding stocks AEONTS-MAJOR-SAPPE
On the profit side, listed companies have a positive view on earnings per share (EPS) that continues to rise. Especially in the business sector that receives positive factors, the high oil price will support EPS this year quite a lot. If combined with the positive factor in oil prices that accelerated, the EPS projection of the Thai stock market increased to 93.9 baht / share from 88.9 baht / share, an increase from 86.2 baht / share last year, reflecting that the company. still has the ability to make more profits under pressure from external factors
In this regard, we recommend the following 3 outstanding stocks:
AEONTS Benefit From Opening City bring back purchasing power There is a need for personal loan withdrawals to recover. It’s also a stock with a low P/E of 11-12 times and a dividend yield of around 2%.
MAJOR has benefited from the opening of the city quite a lot. and movies from Hollywood giants and more Thai movies that are showing in this year And there are also investments in other companies that will help enhance the company’s potential.
SAPPE has benefited from the opening of the city. And during the festival and this summer will be able to increase sales. Including the growth of beverage sales in foreign countries that are still growing well.