Long-term interest rates rise in the United States. As a result, dollar buying and yen selling, which are expected to widen the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, have become dominant. US stocks have fallen due to the rise of expectations that monetary tightening measures will be strengthened in the United States. The effect is jumping to the Tokyo stock market.
There is widespread belief that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not stopped and will be prolonged. On the other hand, in China, the infection of the new coronavirus is spreading again, and there are concerns about recession. The world is chaotic.
What it will be! ?? This week’s stock and exchange market!
Tokyo Stock Market U.S. stocks with volatile price movements
Nikkei Stock Average Forecast range: 26,500 yen to 27,500 yen
Friday, April 8, 2022 Closing price 26,985.80 yen
Is the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Market this week a heavy upside?
The Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo stock market last week fell sharply. The fall in US stocks has dragged the market as long-term interest rates have risen in the United States, monetary tightening measures have been strengthened, and concerns about widening interest rate hikes have risen. In addition, concerns about a recession due to the re-expansion of the new coronavirus infection in China were also disgusting.
This week’s Nikkei Stock Average is likely to be a heavy upside. The Nikkei Stock Average has been weighed down by the continued unstable price movements of US stocks due to the growing observation of the expansion of US interest rate hikes and the rise in long-term interest rates.
In addition to the uncertainty of the situation in Ukraine, lockdown (city blockade) due to the re-expansion of the new coronavirus infection has been implemented in China, and there are growing concerns about the deterioration of the Chinese economy, which is also bad news.
This week, we would like to pay attention to the announcement of economic indicators such as the consumer price index in March, which will be used as a basis for making decisions on US monetary policy.
Tokyo foreign exchange market dollar, possibility of further rise
Dollar / yen expected range: 1 dollar = 121.50 yen to 125.80 yen
April 8, 2022 (Friday) closing price 124.32 yen
Is the dollar developing firmly in the dollar-yen exchange rate in this week’s foreign exchange market?
In the dollar-yen exchange rate last week, the dollar rose. With the growing observation of the expansion of interest rate hikes in the United States, long-term interest rates in the United States have risen, and dollar buying and yen selling, which anticipate a widening interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, have become dominant, and the dollar is temporarily 1 dollar = 124 yen. It rose to the middle of the hill.
Is the dollar developing firmly in the dollar-yen exchange rate this week? Although the dollar buying and yen selling composition is expected to continue in anticipation of widening interest rate differentials between Japan and the United States, the level of 1 dollar = the low 125 yen level on March 28 is approaching, and the dollar once profits are confirmed. It is expected that the dollar’s topside will become heavier due to selling.
However, there is no change in the composition of the dollar’s appreciation and the yen’s depreciation, so if the dollar breaks out of the low 125 yen range, the dollar may rise to around 126 yen per dollar.
Economic indicators include machine tool orders in March on the 11th, corporate price index in March on the 12th, and machine orders in February on the 13th.
Overseas, China’s March Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index on the 11th, the US March Consumer Price Index on the 12th, China’s March Trade Balance on the 13th, and the ECB on the 14th. European Central Bank) Regular Board of Directors, US retail sales in March, US mining and industrial production in March on the 15th, etc. are scheduled.
(Kaichi Washio)