As a growing summer surge of COVID-19 takes hold across the United States, public health experts emphasize that the virus is ticking up nationally, spreading most extensively in the South and West while also rising in the Northeast and Midwest, according to NPR. Dr. John Brooks, an infectious disease doctor at Emory University in Atlanta and former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official, notes that while many feel the virus is fading away, it continues to cause widespread disruptions by making people feel awful for a week or two, disrupting summer vacations, and forcing missed work and school.
Summer Covid-19 Surge and Immunity Context
Despite the upward trajectory, this summer’s wave continues a broader multi-year trend of becoming milder, sending fewer people to the hospital and causing fewer deaths. Experts attribute this positive shift to growing herd immunity, as an increasing number of Americans have acquired some level of protection through past infections, vaccinations, or both, as reported by NPR. Nonetheless, the virus remains dangerous for vulnerable groups, including older adults, infants, and immunocompromised individuals, who make up a significant portion of the population.
Data Tracking, Variants, and Regional Hot Spots
Nationwide data from the CDC indicates that COVID-19 is rising in all 50 states, though overall levels remain low. The national positive test rate reached 3.72% as of August 8, marking a notable increase from 0.86% in early June, according to Yahoo News. By comparison, last August saw the national positive test rate climb to over 12%. Regional testing data shows even higher figures among symptomatic patients; Experity, a medical software company servicing thousands of urgent care facilities, reported a national average positive rate of 10.6% over a seven-day period ending August 18, with California reaching 15.8%.
Texas has emerged as the biggest hot spot in the country, followed by Alaska, Hawaii, and California, with at least 24 outbreaks already recorded, according to Forbes. The dominant viral strain circulating is XFG, an Omicron subvariant that first emerged in 2025. While typical respiratory infections spike exclusively in colder winter months, COVID-19 maintains a distinct pattern of surging twice a year in both summer and winter, a seasonality that epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers describes as a major mystery.
Upcoming Vaccine Formulations and Guidance
To combat the circulating strains, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the 2026-2027 season’s new COVID-19 vaccines, featuring mRNA options from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech alongside a protein-based vaccine from Novavax-Sanofi, according to Forbes. These updated shots are specifically formulated to target the dominant XFG strain and are expected to roll out widely in September. While most healthy people may find it reasonable to await the imminent fall release, physicians advise individuals at high risk whose protection is waning to consult a doctor and consider receiving a booster now, as vaccines take one to two weeks to build strong defenses against severe disease, according to Everyday Health.
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