As the November 2026 midterm elections approach, 68% of Cuban Americans in Florida continue to support the Republican Party, even as a significant majority expresses deep dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s sweeping deportation policies targeting individuals without criminal records.
The Roots of Disillusionment in Miami-Dade
In South Florida, the political calculus built on decades of anti-communist alignment is facing an unexpected friction point over immigration. Labrador, a Florida voter who backed Donald Trump two years prior, voiced sharp regret over the current trajectory of immigration enforcement, according to BBC reporting. Campaigning on a promise to launch the largest deportation program in American history, the administration’s early moves caught many supporters off guard. “Personally, I voted for Trump because I wanted to get criminals out of the country,” Labrador said, noting that he never anticipated the administration would target non-criminal migrants.
This sentiment of buyer’s remorse is not isolated. A poll released in late October 2026 by Florida International University (FIU) revealed that 74% of South Florida Cubans disapprove of the administration’s deportations of Cubans with no criminal record. The Miami Herald reported that the same FIU survey of 1,004 Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade County found broad backing for traditional hardline stances against the island’s government—such as keeping Cuba on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism—while simultaneously showing that 74% reject increased deportations of Cuban nationals lacking criminal records.
Political Fault Lines for Congressional Incumbents
The friction over immigration enforcement has trickled directly into local congressional races, most notably in Florida’s 27th Congressional District. Republican U.S. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign video filmed outside the White House openly distancing herself from the administration’s approach. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today,” Salazar stated in the ad, warning that enforcement efforts had gone too far. Salazar faces a tight challenge from the Democratic candidate, Eliott Rodríguez.
RTE noted that Miami-Dade County shifted dramatically toward the GOP over the prior decade, with Donald Trump carrying the county by roughly 11 points in 2024 after Hillary Clinton secured a 30-point victory there in 2016. Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami, observed to RTE that while many voters are turning against specific administration policies, it remains unclear whether that dissatisfaction will be sufficient to flip the state or fundamentally alter long-term voter loyalties.
| Polling Metric / Question | Percentage | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Cuban American voters in Florida planning to vote Republican | 68% | FIU Cuba Poll (via Floridian Press) |
| Cuban Americans disapproving of deportations of Cubans with no criminal record | 74% | FIU Cuba Poll (via Floridian Press) / 74% (Miami Herald) |
| Respondents supporting U.S. military action to overthrow the Cuban government | 72% | Miami Herald |
| Respondents approving keeping Cuba on the state sponsors of terrorism list | 67% | Miami Herald |
Enduring Party Loyalty Amid Economic Pressures
Despite deep reservations regarding federal immigration actions, party allegiance among South Florida’s Cuban community retains its core strength. The FIU poll confirmed that 68% of Cuban voters intend to support Republican candidates in the upcoming November elections. Business figures in Miami, such as real estate businessman Juan Omar Sixto, maintain that local support for the Republican platform remains strong, pointing to shared agreements on border security despite his own history of entering the United States illegally decades prior.
At the same time, broader economic pressures compound the political debate. Working families across the state continue to grapple with elevated living costs, including high supermarket and petrol prices. Stories like that of Heydi Sanchez—who left Cuba during its 2019 economic collapse, crossed the border illegally, and now lives under an I-220B Order of Supervision—underscore the human stakes of the federal immigration apparatus currently under scrutiny by the very electorate that helped propel the GOP to historic margins in Florida.
Deportation fears are testing Republican support among Cuban American voters in Miami, Florida, ahead of the US midterm elections.Al Jazeera's John Holman reports. pic.twitter.com/IsRjnFjjLB
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Today, Raul Castro and his regime are being held accountable for the murder of 3 Americans and 1 Floridian. We stand with the Cuban exile community and the people of Cuba in their fight for freedom. pic.twitter.com/zV3s8wa4Bx
