Analysts believe that May 9, known as “Victory Day” in Russia, will be pivotal in the war on Ukraine, in terms of decisions that are expected to be announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, during the commemoration of the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Western officials have expressed fears that Putin will use the occasion to formally declare war on Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February, according to a TV report.nbc“.
Experts say that after more than two months of thwarted attacks, Putin is left with limited options, ranging from mass mobilization to declaring victory in the eastern Donbass region.
Declaration of war
Over the weekend, Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied that a declaration of war was imminent, insisting the invasion remained a “special military operation”.
The difference may seem only nominal, especially as Russia has amassed a large number of its air, land and sea forces across vast areas of Ukraine.
But declaring war would allow Putin to call up more reservists and order the mass mobilization of combat-age males, potentially prolonging the conflict for months, if not years.
Philip Wasilevsky, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Washington, said Putin’s declaring Ukraine a war zone would turn the conflict into an “existential struggle for his regime.”
“A full mobilization is very expensive politically, and poses risks to the stability of the Putin regime,” said Natalia Bogayova, a Russian research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War.
“The Russians may support the war in an increasingly rhetorical way, but this does not mean that they want to fight and die in it,” Yugayova added.
“The Russian professional army is angry at how this conflict ended, and they want to show that they can indeed win there,” said Rose and Timoller, a former deputy secretary general of NATO.
Victory Announcement
There have also been reports that Putin may use May 9 as a platform to declare victory in eastern Ukraine, if Russian forces can break Ukrainian resistance in the port city of Mariupol, albeit less than he originally hoped.
“For Putin, it’s about trying to put a good face on what has been a very bad military operation,” said Kurt Volker, representative of the former US ambassador to Ukraine negotiations and fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
As he did in 2014, Putin may seek independence referendums in areas captured by Russian forces. Once the region votes for union with Russia – an outcome imposed under Putin – these areas can then be used as a springboard for future attacks.
It is unlikely that Ukraine would accept any peace agreement that would allow Russia to keep the territories it had seized.
Partial packing
With the exception of all-out war or reconciliation, Putin may call in more soldiers to help with operations in Donbass, focusing on individuals who have already served in recent conflicts or from regions bordering Ukraine.
This will probably be more acceptable to both the Kremlin and the Russian public. It would also give Moscow some time to replenish its capacity on the battlefield.
Bogayova said Putin might use Victory Day as an opportunity to expand the ideological goals of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, in an effort to bolster support for and for the conflict.
“He would need to explain to the Russians why they should go fight and die in a war that Russia allegedly won,” she added.
Even if that same day passes without a major incident, the conflict in Ukraine appears poised to continue, with NATO allies bolstering Ukraine’s defenses against an attack that will surely define Putin’s term in power.