The Swiss economy will not be able to escape the slowdown in the global economic situation this year. But according to the forecasts of the Raiffeisen bank, there is no “acute risk of recession”, because the country retains many assets.
Exports are running out of steam due to the strong franc and rising prices abroad, which are dampening the global economy. In addition, “high energy prices and the increase in the cost of living are also having their effects” in Switzerland, Raiffeisen said on Tuesday.
The economists of the St. Gallen bank have rubbed their crystal ball and anticipate a growth of the Gross Domestic Product of 1% for the coming year.
Many positive indicators
The low risk of recession in Switzerland is particularly linked to purchasing power, which has declined less than abroad thanks to the strength of the Swiss franc. It helps to partially offset the cost of imports. For 2023, Raiffeisen expects inflation to be lower than last year, with a rate of increase in consumer prices of 2.3%.
In addition, other elements allow the Swiss economy to be optimistic: low debt, numerous patents filed, not to mention a relative “peace at work” which has been preserved in the country despite the various crises.
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Furthermore, immigration – a theme that has been strongly highlighted in recent times – supports the economic fabric by alleviating the labor shortage. It also fuels population growth and thus makes it possible to maintain the general level of consumption as well as a relatively balanced demographic dependency ratio, alleviating the economic pressure on working people.
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Concerned population
Thus, consumption should remain a solid pillar for growth this year and help avoid any endogenous risk of tipping into a recession.
For 2024, Raiffeisen forecasts GDP growth of around 1.5%. “We are hopeful that in the fourth year after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, we will once again experience a trend in the direction of growth”, explains Martin Neff. The precondition is that no new shocks arise, in particular health or geopolitical.
However, these positive elements are not enough to reassure Swiss citizens, who say they are particularly pessimistic for the year to come, against a backdrop of uncertainty, in particular for the most precarious households, according to several opinion polls.
>> Read about it: Financially, the Swiss have never been so pessimistic for six years
Return of current account remuneration
The rise in interest rates is approaching its peak. The SNB should limit its rate hikes this year, the experts are convinced.
But until then, some banks have taken the lead in passing on these positive rates to savings accounts, which are beginning to yield. The remuneration of savings remains low – 0.19% on average for the month of January, according to the financial services portal Moneyland.ch – but it is well above the 0.04% measured last year.
It is mainly the small cantonal and regional establishments that have acted. The Cantonal Bank of Zug thus offers an interest rate on its savings account of 0.65% the first year, followed by its counterparts in Lucerne (0.6%) and Schaffhausen (0.6%), according to the Moneyland.ch statement. Small regional establishments, such as Clientis Spar- und Leihkasse Thayngen (0.55%), are also referenced.
Big less generous banks
The big banking groups are still dragging their feet to follow this movement. The rate is set at 0.1% at Raiffeisen and drops to 0.01% at Credit Suisse. For the time being, Moneyland attributes the red cap to UBS, where the interest rate is 0%. It will drop to 0.1% in February. Among these large establishments, the Zürcher Kantonalbank (0.5%) and Postfinance (0.4%) are exceptions.
Moneyland warns, however, that the more generous rates are often coupled with specific conditions, particularly in terms of withdrawal or maximum deposit amount. Finally, this rise in rates is also to be put into perspective because of inflation: corrected for inflation, savers remain losers on their savings, underlines the managing director of Moneyland Benjamin Manz.
>> The details in La Matinale on Wednesday:
Radio subject: Dominique Choffat
Web text: jop with ats