Diesel shortages are impacting approximately 10% of French service stations, with a critical correlation found between low price points and supply exhaustion. As of Monday afternoon, 958 out of 9,822 monitored stations reported temporary diesel stockouts, according to data reported by Selectra.
The supply volatility has intensified since the weekend, with 526 of these shortages occurring since Saturday, October 31. The data reveals a specific vulnerability in stations offering a psychological price point of exactly €2.25 per liter; these locations are roughly 18 times more likely to face a stockout than their higher-priced counterparts.
Strategic Fuel Availability Summary
- Price Sensitivity: Stations priced at exactly €2.25 reported a 21.2% shortage rate, compared to only 1.2% for stations priced higher.
- Regional Hotspots: Mayenne (14.5%) and Maine-et-Loire (13.0%) show the highest percentage of station outages.
- Supply Velocity: Between 7:00 and 16:00 on Monday, shortages were being reported at a rate of 19 to 38 stations per hour.
The €2.25 Price Point and Supply Instability
The correlation between aggressive pricing and inventory depletion is stark. On Friday, October 30, while only 17.3% of all stations were pricing diesel at the €2.25 mark, they represented 79% of the stations that subsequently reported shortages. Specifically, 328 of the 1,544 stations offering diesel at €2.25 on October 30 were out of stock by Monday afternoon.
In contrast, stations pricing fuel above €2.30 maintained significantly higher reliability, with shortage rates dropping to approximately 1%. While TotalEnergies (TTE: FP) announced a commitment to maintain a €2.25 ceiling on diesel across its network on October 30, official data streams do not specify if the affected stations belong to this particular network or if the pricing strategy is driving the localized scarcity.
Regional Disparities in Diesel Accessibility
The shortage is not distributed uniformly across the French territory. While highway service stations remain relatively stable—with only 1.4% reporting outages—the impact on local, non-highway networks is more pronounced at 5.5%.
| Department | Total Stations | Stations in Rupture | Percentage of Outages |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayenne | 55 | 8 | 14.5% |
| Maine-et-Loire | 108 | 14 | 13.0% |
Geographic clusters of shortages are also evident in Gironde, Seine-et-Marne, and Haute-Garonne, which recorded 19, 17, and 16 open shortages respectively since Saturday. In Alsace, the Bas-Rhin department continues to face pressure with 11 open shortages recorded among 149 stations.
Shortage Numbers Fluctuate as Stations Return to Service
The frequency of these shortages does not follow a linear progression. Official daily files recorded 743 shortages on October 29 and 763 on October 30, before the figure climbed to 1,173 on November 1. By Monday afternoon, the number had settled at 958. This volatility is partially offset by stations returning to service; of the 1,139 stations in rupture on November 1 that remained in the public data stream, 449 had resolved their shortages by Monday.
When stations exit a rupture state, they often return to the previously observed low price points. Of the 449 stations that cleared their shortages since November 1, 188 resumed offering diesel at €2.25, while 103 returned to a price of €2.15.
Drivers and logistics operators must verify real-time availability based on current data. Checking the official fuel price website for real-time status updates remains the only method to confirm if a station has diesel in its tanks before arrival.
