Diplomats Say Asian Leaders See Weakened Trump, Less Intimidated

Donald Trump faces an altered power dynamic at Asian diplomatic summits this week following Republican midterm losses, as foreign leaders grow less intimidated by his tariffs and trade demands while looking toward a potential new U.S. administration in 2028, Politico reported.

The diplomatic tour begins on Sunday with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in the Philippines, as detailed by The Guardian, before moving to Manila for the East Asia Summit on Monday and concluding at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen, China. These back-to-back gatherings place the U.S. president opposite regional counterparts who have weathered aggressive tariffs and high-stakes investment demands over the past two years.

Asian leaders “will deal with him cautiously but keep their options open. They may still see a relationship with the U.S. as important, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll follow Trump’s lead,” an Asian diplomat told Politico, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

The calculation across regional capitals has shifted visibly since the November midterm elections delivered historic losses for Republicans in Washington. Fear surrounding potential Oval Office humiliations, sudden export restrictions, troop withdrawals, and aggressive tariff actions has noticeably dissipated among foreign governments.

Shifting Power in Manila and Shenzhen

During the meetings in Manila, U.S. officials will participate in sidelines discussions involving the Quad nations, comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, according to The Guardian’s reporting on the summit schedule. The discussions coincide with broader regional talks concerning artificial intelligence supply chains, green energy transitions, and ongoing trade reductions.

Trump arrives bearing unresolved economic friction, including a lingering 50% tariff imposed on India following the collapse of a bilateral trade deal last year, which the administration subsequently eased to 18% in February. South Korea faces ongoing pressure regarding a delayed $350 billion investment pledge, with the administration suspecting Seoul of slow-walking the funds.

Photo: The Guardian

Asian leaders “are pretty astute observers of power. They will view the president as somewhat weakened now,” said Kurt Tong, former principal deputy assistant secretary for economic and business affairs at the State Department in the Obama administration, speaking as managing partner at The Asia Group.

A second Asian diplomat told Politico that foreign leaders "no longer feel as intimidated by him." Meanwhile, the White House maintained that the administration's standing remains strong.

“President Trump has effectively restored American strength on the global stage and strengthened relationships with world leaders,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement reported by Politico.

Waiting Out the White House

A third Washington-based Asian diplomat told Politico that their government holds minimal enthusiasm for entering into new trade or investment agreements, preferring to wait for a new administration in 2028.

“There’ll be less enthusiasm for making deals with the Trump administration,” the diplomat said, pointing instead toward smaller business-to-business arrangements.

The same diplomat said that their foreign ministry requested a meeting between their head of government and Trump on the sidelines of the summits, alongside a separate discussion with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Country / Region Key Issue at Summit Diplomatic Stance South Korea $350B investment pledge & U.S. military exercises Suspected of slow-walking fund allocations India Tariffs reduced from 50% to 18% in February Bristling over previous trade deal collapse China Bilateral relations & technology hubs in Shenzhen Managing status quo while looking toward 2028.

In Beijing, where Trump will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the focus centers squarely on long-term positioning. The Guardian said that the summit occurs two weeks after the U.S. midterm elections and follows domestic technology headlines involving the region’s semiconductor supply chains.

“The Chinese are already thinking about what comes next, more than about how to manage Trump,” said Jonathan Czin, a former CIA analyst on China now at the Brookings Institution, in interviews cited by Politico. “They’re going to mollify Trump and string him along” to preserve the existing status quo.

Lobbying Capitol Hill

To guard against administrative volatility, regional embassies in Washington are already preparing legislative strategies aimed at the incoming Democratic majority in the House and Senate. Officials are actively querying U.S. counterparts regarding congressional checks on executive foreign policy powers.

Southeast Asian embassies “are going to face a busy couple of months because their capitals are asking them what powers the Democrats have in Congress, the early signals of how they intend to use those powers and who’s emerging as the front-runners in the presidential contest,” said Piper Campbell, former head of the U.S. mission to ASEAN in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Foreign officials remain careful to avoid public friction that could trigger presidential retaliation against shared regional interests. Yuki Tatsumi, former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese embassy in Washington, said that foreign leaders “won’t want to provoke him or give him motivation to potentially sacrifice what they’re collectively interested in by making it obvious that he’s irrelevant.”

Canada has demonstrated a similar willingness to defer major commitments, with Prime Minister Mark Carney stating last month that he would prefer negotiating with the next American president rather than securing an unfavorable trade agreement.